tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18708675799714690542024-03-21T21:11:12.857-04:00Stock Tips InvestmentOur daily blog will give you the best stock tips, market trends and news alerts to stay on the top of your game.Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04035672574882281484noreply@blogger.comBlogger4242125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1870867579971469054.post-19252754538192757022013-09-26T07:29:00.001-04:002013-09-26T07:29:09.839-04:00Believe It or Not, the Bulls Still Have Plenty of Muscle<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container zemanta-img" style="float: right; margin-right: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
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<a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/59872488@N00/394462654" imageanchor="1" style="margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: clear:right;"><img alt="An einem Sonntag im August..." border="0" class="zemanta-img-inserted" height="180" src="http://farm1.static.flickr.com/138/394462654_5493c45109_m.jpg" style="border: none; font-size: 0.8em;" width="240" /></a></div>
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<tr><td class="tr-caption zemanta-img-attribution" style="text-align: center;">(Photo credit: <a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/59872488@N00/394462654" target="_blank">Concentrated Passion</a>)</td></tr>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #252525; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; line-height: 22px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Russell, NYSE Composite still pushing upward</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><span class="meta-prep meta-prep-author" style="background-color: transparent; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 0px; font-size: 13px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">By </span><span style="background-color: transparent; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 0px; font-size: 13px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="http://investorplace.com/author/sam-collins/" style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; color: #0079d1; font-size: 13px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">Sam Collins</a>, InvestorPlace Chief Technical Analyst</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 18px;">New York, Sept.26, stocks to watch .- The</span><strong style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 18px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> S&P 500</strong><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 18px;"> closed lower for the fifth consecutive session Wednesday, marking the longest losing streak of the year for the broad-based index. Since it scored a new high last Thursday, the index has fallen 1.9%.</span><br />
<span style="color: #393f40; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 22px;"><br /></span>
<span style="color: #393f40; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 22px;">The </span><strong style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; color: #393f40; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 22px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a class="zem_slink" href="http://www.djaverages.com/?view=industrial&page=overview" rel="homepage" target="_blank" title="Dow Jones Industrial Average">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a></strong><span style="color: #393f40; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 22px;"> also fell, suffering from the impact of a 1.45% decline in the shares of </span><strong style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; color: #393f40; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 22px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Walmart</strong><span style="color: #393f40; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 22px;"> (</span><a href="http://studio-5.financialcontent.com/investplace/quote?Symbol=WMT" style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; color: #0079d1; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 22px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">WMT</a><span style="color: #393f40; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 22px;">). Early yesterday the giant retailer was reported to have cut its orders from suppliers, but the report was labeled as “misleading” by a company representative.</span><br />
<span style="color: #393f40; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 22px;"><br /></span>
<span style="color: #393f40; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 22px;">A better-than-expected <a class="zem_slink" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Durable_good" rel="wikipedia" target="_blank" title="Durable good">durable goods</a> report for August and an increase in the sale of new homes in August helped to offset wrangling on Capitol Hill. No agreement over the <a class="zem_slink" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_debt_ceiling" rel="wikipedia" target="_blank" title="United States debt ceiling">debt ceiling</a> appears near, and funding runs out at midnight on Sept. 30.</span><br />
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<span style="color: #393f40; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 22px;">A</span><span style="color: #393f40; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 22px;">t the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was off 61 points at 15,273, the S&P 500 fell 5 points to 1,693, and the </span><strong style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; color: #393f40; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 22px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Nasdaq</strong><span style="color: #393f40; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 22px;">gave up 7 points to fall to 3,761. The NYSE traded 641 million shares and the Nasdaq crossed 428 million. On the Big Board, advancers and decliners were close to even, and decliners edged out advancers on the Nasdaq by 1.1-to-1.</span></div>
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<a class="fancybox" href="http://investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/Russ2000BullChannel.gif" style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; color: #0079d1; display: inline-block; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 18px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: center; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><img alt="Russ2000BullChannel" class="alignnone size-medium wp-image-410003" height="198" src="http://investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/Russ2000BullChannel-300x198.gif" style="background-color: transparent; border: none; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="300" /><br />
Click to Enlarge</span></a></div>
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<a href="http://investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/chart-key.gif" style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; color: #0079d1; font-size: 14px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><img alt="Chart Key" class="aligncenter size-medium wp-image-354057" height="84" src="http://investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/chart-key-300x84.gif" style="background-color: transparent; border: none; clear: both; display: block; font-size: 14px; margin: 0px auto 18px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="300" /></span></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">The <strong style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 14px; font-weight: bold; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Russell 2000</strong> made a new all-time high yesterday with its intraday high of 1,082. The Russell 2000 — like its cousin, the Nasdaq (<a href="http://investorplace.com/2013/09/daily-stock-market-news-if-you-have-a-burning-desire-to-buy-heres-where-to-look/" style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; color: #0079d1; font-size: 14px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">see Wednesday’s chart and comment</a>) — is trading within a bull channel, but unlike the Nasdaq, it has no resistance above it to hamper further new highs. MACD is slightly overbought but could become more overbought as the index continues its dogged advance.</span></div>
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<a class="fancybox aligncenter" href="http://investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/NYSEBullChannel.gif" style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; clear: both; color: #0079d1; display: block; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal; margin: 0px auto 18px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: center; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img alt="NYSEBullChannel" class="aligncenter size-medium wp-image-410004" height="196" src="http://investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/NYSEBullChannel-300x196.gif" style="background-color: transparent; border: none; clear: both; display: block; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px auto; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="300" /><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br />
Click to Enlarge</span></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">The NYSE Composite is a broad-based index containing all stocks traded on the Big Board. Its chart pattern is much like that of the S&P 500 (<a href="http://investorplace.com/2013/09/daily-stock-market-news-expect-a-pullback-before-any-new-highs-are-made/" style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; color: #0079d1; font-size: 14px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">see Monday’s chart</a>), which recently made a new all-time high. But the NYSE’s new high at 9,906 — made last Wednesday — was unlike the S&P 500 in that it has not seen a new high since May, and its all-time high at 10,387 was made in October 2007.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><strong style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 14px; font-weight: bold; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Conclusion:</strong> Despite yet another down day, the short-, intermediate- and long-term trends still are bullish. The continuing power of the bull market is supported by both the broad-based indices as well as the small- and midcap stocks. The ability to keep trudging along despite the overwhelming negativity coming from Washington is a powerful argument in favor of the bulls. Bearish momentum is absent.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">The strongest sectors continue to be industrials, tech & biotech, consumer discretionary, biotech, pharma, housing, materials and financials. Bonds and bond substitutes have been the weakest.</span></div>
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04035672574882281484noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1870867579971469054.post-67632469830505884392013-09-26T07:19:00.000-04:002013-09-26T07:19:54.753-04:00Dollar and Treasuries likely to lift Gold<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container zemanta-img" style="float: right; margin-right: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
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<a href="http://commons.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Petroleum.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: clear:right;"><img alt="English: A sample of crude oil from Haenigsen,..." border="0" class="zemanta-img-inserted" height="400" src="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/56/Petroleum.JPG/300px-Petroleum.JPG" style="border: none; font-size: 0.8em;" width="300" /></a></div>
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<tr><td class="tr-caption zemanta-img-attribution" style="text-align: center; width: 300px;">English: A sample of crude oil from Haenigsen, Germany. Deutsch: Flasche mit Erdöl (Photo credit: <a href="http://commons.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Petroleum.JPG" target="_blank">Wikipedia</a>)</td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><b>By Colin Twiggs</b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Sydney, Sept.26, stock watch .- Spot <em>gold</em> continues to test support at $1300/ounce. Failure of support would visit the primary level at $1200/ounce, while respect would test $1440. Breach of the downward trend channel indicates the primary trend is slowing, but recovery above $1440, and a primary up-trend, seem some way off — as does recovery of 13-week Twiggs Momentum above zero.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><img alt="Spot Gold" id="_x0000_i1025" src="http://static.incrediblecharts.com/images/2013/2013-09-26-goldw.png" title="Spot Gold" /></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">The two-hourly chart shows breakout above resistance at $1330. Retracement that respects the new support level would signal a rally to test $1375, improving the chances of a bottom.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><img alt="Spot Gold" id="_x0000_i1026" src="http://static.incrediblecharts.com/images/2013/2013-09-26-gold.png" title="Spot Gold" /></span><br />
<h3>
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">
Dollar Index</span></h3>
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">The Dollar Index broke primary support at 80.50, warning of a primary down-trend. Follow-through below 80 would confirm. A 13-week Twiggs Momentum peak at zero also suggests a down-trend. A falling dollar would boost gold prices. Recovery above 81 is unlikely, but would warn of a bear trap.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><img alt="Dollar Index" id="_x0000_i1027" src="http://static.incrediblecharts.com/images/2013/2013-09-26-dxy.png" title="Dollar Index" /></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">The yield on ten-year Treasury Notes broke support at 2.70 percent, warning of another test of 2.40 percent. Penetration of the rising trendline would strengthen the signal. Falling treasury yields are also likely to lift precious metal prices (because of the lower opportunity cost).</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><img alt="10-Year Treasury Yields" id="_x0000_i1028" src="http://static.incrediblecharts.com/images/2013/2013-09-26-tnx.png" title="10-Year Treasury Yields" /></span><br />
<h3>
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">
Crude Oil</span></h3>
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Nymex light crude broke support at $103/barrel and its rising trendline, warning that the up-trend is slowing. A test of medium-term support at $98/barrel is now likely. The wider spread with <a class="zem_slink" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brent_Crude" rel="wikipedia" target="_blank" title="Brent Crude">Brent Crude</a> is an indication of tensions over Syria which threaten supply.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><img alt="Brent Crude and Nymex Crude" id="_x0000_i1029" src="http://static.incrediblecharts.com/images/2013/2013-09-26-crude.png" title="Brent Crude and Nymex Crude" /></span><br />
<h3>
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">
Commodities</span></h3>
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Commodity prices continue to fall, with the <a class="zem_slink" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dow_Jones-UBS_Commodity_Index" rel="wikipedia" target="_blank" title="Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index">Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index</a> headed for another test of 124 despite a resilient <a class="zem_slink" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SSE_Composite_Index" rel="wikipedia" target="_blank" title="SSE Composite Index">Shanghai Composite Index</a>. Recovery above 130 is unlikely, but would confirm the earlier double-bottom reversal and a primary up-trend.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><img alt="Dow Jones UBS Commodities Index" id="_x0000_i1030" src="http://static.incrediblecharts.com/images/2013/2013-09-26-dubs.png" title="Dow Jones UBS Commodities Index" /></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">* Target calculation: 130 + ( 130 - 125 ) = 135 <b>...</b></span><br />
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04035672574882281484noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1870867579971469054.post-51012157658983867512013-09-26T07:08:00.001-04:002013-09-26T07:08:34.631-04:00Top 10 Stocks For 2014<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container zemanta-img" style="float: right; margin-right: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
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<a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/41153475@N04/8628649856" imageanchor="1" style="margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: clear:right;"><img alt="EI-EPD" border="0" class="zemanta-img-inserted" height="160" src="http://farm9.static.flickr.com/8254/8628649856_b772edc0ac_m.jpg" style="border: none; font-size: 0.8em;" width="240" /></a></div>
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<tr><td class="tr-caption zemanta-img-attribution" style="text-align: center; width: 240px;">EI-EPD (Photo credit: <a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/41153475@N04/8628649856" target="_blank">markyharky</a>)</td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><b>By StreetAuthority</b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><b><br /></b></span>
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Chicago, Sept.26, stock trade .- It's one of our most popular pieces of annual research. Literally hundreds of thousands of investors have read -- and profited -- from this advice.<br />
<br />
And since we first started publishing our annual <em>Top 10 Stocks</em> list, we've beaten the market seven out of 10 years. For comparison, shares of <a class="zem_slink" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Warren_Buffett" rel="wikipedia" target="_blank" title="Warren Buffett">Warren Buffett</a>'s <a class="zem_slink" href="http://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSE:BRK/A" rel="googlefinance" target="_blank" title="NYSE: BRK/A">Berkshire Hathaway</a> (NYSE: <a href="http://sa1.streetauthoritydaily.com/t/1878257/124536520/386066/6/?d879f9db=OTM3NjYwNTM%3d&018bef1f=&x=cd27a3c5">BRK-B</a>) have only beaten the market five out of the past 10 years.<br />
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I've shared one of these stocks with you already. Last week, <a href="http://sa1.streetauthoritydaily.com/t/1878257/124536520/386067/7/?d879f9db=OTM3NjYwNTM%3d&018bef1f=&x=ce95ea32" target="_blank">I told you</a> about <strong>Philip Morris International (NYSE: <a href="http://sa1.streetauthoritydaily.com/t/1878257/124536520/386068/8/?d879f9db=OTM3NjYwNTM%3d&018bef1f=&x=d29de062">PM</a>)</strong>. This tobacco company, while hated by most people, has raised its dividend nearly 85% since spinning off from its parent company in 2008.<br />
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And in today's article I'll tell you about another one of my "Top 10 Stocks for 2014."<br />
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But before I continue, I want to make something clear. I can't provide you with all 10 of my "Top 10 Stocks for 2014" here. I've reserved the report exclusively for my <em>Top 10 Stocks</em> advisory subscribers. It wouldn't be fair to them to give this list away to everyone.<br />
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But I can give you something even more valuable than just a couple of stock picks...</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">You see, I want to show you why these stocks made my list for 2014... and how you can find similar stocks on your own.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">I think my 2014 ideas may end up being the most profitable in our history. As you can see in my chart, this group of 10 stocks has already <strong>beaten the S&P during each of the past five years</strong> -- that includes the sharp bear market we saw in 2008 and the powerful bull market we enjoyed in 2009 and 2010.<br />
<img border="0" id="_x0000_i1028" src="http://images.streetauthority.biz/sad/a/2013/img18.gif" /><br />
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In fact, if you had invested $10,000 into this group of stocks just five years ago, your investment would be worth $22,950 as of the end of September -- a 129.5% total return. The same investment in the S&P would be worth just $14,590 -- a 45.9% return.<br />
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So what's the secret behind this performance?<br />
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Well, after years of research, I've found that companies with a few basic characteristics are the ones that consistently beat the S&P...<br />
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<em>-- Companies that enjoy huge (and lasting) advantages over the competition.</em><br />
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<em><em>-- Companies that are buying back massive amounts of their own stock.</em><br />
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<em>-- Companies that pay investors each and every year by dishing out growing dividends.</em></em><br />
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I've found that more often than not, companies that match these three simple criteria are the ones that make you the most money long term.<br />
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It makes sense -- strong companies that take care of their shareholders tend to do better over the long run. These are the stocks that consistently create value for their investors year after year, delivering some of the market's biggest returns.<br />
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Take <strong><a class="zem_slink" href="http://www.epplp.com/" rel="homepage" target="_blank" title="Enterprise Products">Enterprise Products Partners</a> (NYSE: <a href="http://sa1.streetauthoritydaily.com/t/1878257/124536520/386070/10/?d879f9db=OTM3NjYwNTM%3d&018bef1f=&x=09135d6c">EPD</a>)</strong>, for example. EPD made my "Top 10 Stocks for 2014" list precisely because it meets two out of the three characteristics listed above.<br />
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Does EPD enjoy huge advantages over its competition? Absolutely.<br />
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The company is one of the largest pipeline companies in the U.S., with 50,000 miles of onshore and offshore pipelines.<br />
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Does it pay a steadily growing dividend? You bet.<br />
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Since 1998 EPD has raised its dividend 202%... from $0.225 per share every quarter to $0.68.<br />
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It doesn't take a Ph.D. to understand that this is the sort of stock that should continue to make money for its investors year after year.<br />
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And in recent years, EPD has done just that. Since 2008, shares have returned roughly 170%. That includes a nearly 20% gain since the start of the year.<br />
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Performance like this proves investing doesn't have to be complicated. There's nothing complex about investing in simple businesses that dominate their industries and return billions of dollars to their investors through dividends and buybacks. Yet it works.<br />
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Keep this in mind. It might be the most profitable investing lesson you'll ever learn.<br />
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<strong>Note</strong>: For more information about the rest of my <em><strong><a href="http://sa1.streetauthoritydaily.com/t/1878257/124536520/386071/11/?d879f9db=OTM3NjYwNTM%3d&018bef1f=&x=fb51cafd" target="_blank">Top 10 Stocks For 2014</a></strong></em> --including several names and ticker symbols -- <strong><a href="http://sa1.streetauthoritydaily.com/t/1878257/124536520/386071/12/?d879f9db=OTM3NjYwNTM%3d&018bef1f=&x=6022f49d" target="_blank">you can follow this link.</a></strong></span><br />
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<li class="zemanta-article-ul-li"><a href="http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2013/09/25/wgl-holdings-keeps-dividend-steady.aspx" target="_blank">WGL Holdings Keeps Dividend Steady</a> (fool.com)</li>
<li class="zemanta-article-ul-li"><a href="http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2013/09/25/heres-what-this-22-billion-money-manager-has-been.aspx" target="_blank">Here's What This $22 Billion Money Manager Has Been Buying and Selling</a> (fool.com)</li>
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04035672574882281484noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1870867579971469054.post-4111066615093745892013-09-25T08:09:00.001-04:002013-09-25T08:09:53.244-04:00If You Have a Burning Desire to Buy, Here's Where to Look<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container zemanta-img" style="float: right; margin-right: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
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<a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/70276235@N00/4685926743" imageanchor="1" style="margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: clear:right;"><img alt="This is the Dow Jones Industrial Average over ..." border="0" class="zemanta-img-inserted" height="134" src="http://farm5.static.flickr.com/4041/4685926743_710f643178_m.jpg" style="border: none; font-size: 0.8em;" width="240" /></a></div>
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<tr><td class="tr-caption zemanta-img-attribution" style="text-align: center; width: 240px;">This is the Dow Jones Industrial Average over the last 40 years. (Photo credit: <a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/70276235@N00/4685926743" target="_blank">The_Smiths</a>)</td></tr>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #252525; line-height: 22px;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">Momentum is strongest in small-cap and mid-cap tech stocks, while some <a class="zem_slink" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_chip_%28stock_market%29" rel="wikipedia" target="_blank" title="Blue chip (stock market)">blue chips</a> offer bargains</span></span><br />
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<div class="entry-meta" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; border: 0px; color: #252525; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; margin: 0px 0px 45px; orphans: auto; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><span class="meta-prep meta-prep-author" style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">By </span><span style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="http://investorplace.com/author/sam-collins/" style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; color: #0079d1; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">Sam Collins</a>, InvestorPlace Chief Technical Analyst</span></span><br />
<span style="color: #393f40; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; line-height: 22px;">New York, Sep.25, stock tips .- Blue-chip stocks took a hit for the fourth consecutive session as worries loomed over a possible <a class="zem_slink" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Government_shutdown" rel="wikipedia" target="_blank" title="Government shutdown">government shutdown</a>.</span><br />
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<span style="color: #393f40; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; line-height: 22px;">Banks were hit hard with </span><b style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; color: #393f40; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; line-height: 22px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">JPMorgan Chase</b><span style="color: #393f40; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; line-height: 22px;"> (</span><a href="http://studio-5.financialcontent.com/investplace/quote?Symbol=JPM" style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; color: #0079d1; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; line-height: 22px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">JPM</a><span style="color: #393f40; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; line-height: 22px;">) falling to a four-month low after offering to pay $3 billion to the U.S. government to settle various claims. The Dow, S&P 500 and <a class="zem_slink" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NYSE_Composite" rel="wikipedia" target="_blank" title="NYSE Composite">NYSE Composite</a> all sold off during the last two hours of trading, but small-cap and mid-cap stocks held onto their early gains.</span><br />
<span style="color: #393f40; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; line-height: 22px;">Consumer confidence for September declined to 79.7 from 81.8 in August, versus expectations of 79.8. Home prices for July rose 12.4% from year-earlier levels and were in line with expectations.</span><br />
<span style="color: #393f40; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; line-height: 22px;">At Tuesday’s close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was off 67 points to 15,335, the S&P 500 fell 4 points to 1,697, and the Nasdaq rose 3 points at 3,768. The NYSE traded 673 million shares and the Nasdaq crossed 422 million. Advancers led decliners on both exchanges by about 1.3-to-1.</span></div>
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<a class="fancybox" href="http://investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/09-25-13-dow.gif" style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; color: #0079d1; display: inline-block; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 18px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: center; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><img alt="Dow Chart" class="alignnone size-medium wp-image-408952" height="195" src="http://investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/09-25-13-dow-300x195.gif" style="background-color: transparent; border: none; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="300" /><br />
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<a href="http://investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/chart-key.gif" style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; color: #0079d1; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><img alt="Chart Key" class="aligncenter" height="84" src="http://investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/chart-key-300x84.gif" style="background-color: transparent; border: none; clear: both; display: block; margin: 0px auto 18px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="300" /></span></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">The Dow industrials have turned away from the high of 15,710 made only four sessions ago, and have penetrated into the broad support zone of 14,760 to 15,400. Within that zone is its next meaningful support, the 50-day moving average at 15,310.</span></div>
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<a class="fancybox aligncenter" href="http://investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/09-25-13-dow-hour.gif" style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; clear: both; color: #0079d1; display: block; line-height: normal; margin: 0px auto 18px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: center; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img alt="Dow Chart" class="aligncenter size-medium wp-image-408953" height="300" src="http://investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/09-25-13-dow-hour-266x300.gif" style="background-color: transparent; border: none; clear: both; display: block; margin: 0px auto; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="266" /><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">The blue chips held for most of the day, but in roughly the final hour and a half of trading, the Dow plunged over 100 points, led by the financials. The bias is against the blue chips and in favor of small-cap and mid-cap stocks.</span></div>
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<a class="fancybox aligncenter" href="http://investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/09-25-13-nasdaq.gif" style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; clear: both; color: #0079d1; display: block; line-height: normal; margin: 0px auto 18px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: center; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img alt="Nasdaq Chart" class="aligncenter size-medium wp-image-408956" height="199" src="http://investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/09-25-13-nasdaq-300x199.gif" style="background-color: transparent; border: none; clear: both; display: block; margin: 0px auto; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="300" /><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">The Nasdaq’s bull channel is much like the Russell 2000′s channel <a href="http://investorplace.com/2013/09/daily-stock-market-news-expect-a-pullback-before-any-new-highs-are-made/" style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; color: #0079d1; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">illustrated on Monday</a>. Trading is clustered close to the top of its range, and so, with MACD overbought, the Nasdaq could pull back to its 50-day moving average at 3,657.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><b style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Conclusion:</b> If you must own stocks or are a trader, grabbing the small-cap and mid-cap technology stocks appears to be the best near-term strategy since that is where the buying is concentrated and momentum is strongest.</span></div>
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Even the broad-based S&P 500 closed below 1,705, a near-term inflection point. Its next support is its 50-day moving average at 1,679. But volume was high on last week’s advance and has declined on the blue chips’ pullback. The bright side of the blue chips’ near-term weakness is that some big, profitable names can be bought at reasonable prices like my <a href="http://investorplace.com/2013/09/top-stocks-to-buy-amzn-etn-pbi-ssys-qcom-txrh/" style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; color: #0079d1; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">Top 6 Stocks to Buy for October</a></span><br />
<b><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">...</span></b><br />
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04035672574882281484noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1870867579971469054.post-5378338998206476072013-09-24T08:26:00.000-04:002013-09-24T08:26:34.314-04:00Only Part of This Market Appears to Be Out of Gas<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container zemanta-img" style="float: right; margin-right: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
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<a href="http://www.crunchbase.com/company/apple" imageanchor="1" style="margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: clear:right;"><img alt="Image representing Apple as depicted in CrunchBase" border="0" class="zemanta-img-inserted" height="250" src="http://www.crunchbase.com/assets/images/resized/0005/4061/54061v1-max-250x250.jpg" style="border: none; font-size: 0.8em;" width="206" /></a></div>
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<tr><td class="tr-caption zemanta-img-attribution" style="text-align: center; width: 206px;">Image via <a href="http://www.crunchbase.com/" target="_blank">CrunchBase</a></td></tr>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #252525; line-height: 22px;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;"><a class="zem_slink" href="http://www.wikinvest.com/metric/Market_Capitalization" rel="wikinvest" target="_blank" title="Market Capitalization">Small-cap</a> and mid-cap stocks are leading the market, while the large-cap indices sag</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><span class="meta-prep meta-prep-author" style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">By </span><span style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="http://investorplace.com/author/sam-collins/" style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; color: #0079d1; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">Sam Collins</a>, InvestorPlace Chief Technical Analyst</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; line-height: 18px;">New York, Sept.24, stock picks .- Stocks fell Monday, but the selling was primarily focused on the <a class="zem_slink" href="http://www.djaverages.com/?view=industrial&page=overview" rel="homepage" target="_blank" title="Dow Jones Industrial Average">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>, which lost 0.5%. Some industrials, most utility stocks and technology issues, rallied, but financials took a hit.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><b style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Apple </b>(<a href="http://studio-5.financialcontent.com/investplace/quote?Symbol=AAPL" style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; color: #0079d1; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">AAPL</a>) rose 5% following news of demand for its latest products, and <b style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">BlackBerry </b>(<a href="http://studio-5.financialcontent.com/investplace/quote?Symbol=BBRY" style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; color: #0079d1; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">BBRY</a>) rose more than 1% after a tentative agreement to be bought out by Toronto-based Fairfax Financial at $9 a share.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">At Monday’s close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 50 points to 15,401, the S&P 500 was down 8 points at 1,702, and the Nasdaq lost 9 points at 3,765. The <a class="zem_slink" href="http://maps.google.com/maps?ll=40.7068333333,-74.0110277778&spn=0.01,0.01&q=40.7068333333,-74.0110277778%20(New%20York%20Stock%20Exchange)&t=h" rel="geolocation" target="_blank" title="New York Stock Exchange">NYSE</a> traded 690 million shares and the Nasdaq crossed 427 million. Decliners beat out advancers on both major exchanges by about 1.3-to-1.</span></div>
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<a class="fancybox" href="http://investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/09-24-13-dji.gif" style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; color: #0079d1; display: inline-block; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 18px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: center; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><img alt="Dow Chart" class="alignnone size-medium wp-image-408070" height="195" src="http://investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/09-24-13-dji-300x195.gif" style="background-color: transparent; border: none; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="300" /><br />
Click to Enlarge</span></a></div>
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<a href="http://investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/chart-key.gif" style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; color: #0079d1; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><img alt="Chart Key" class="alignnone size-medium wp-image-354057" height="84" src="http://investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/chart-key-300x84.gif" style="background-color: transparent; border: none; margin: 0px 0px 18px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="300" /></span></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">After blasting to a new high on Wednesday, the Dow industrials have sagged and closed Monday almost on the first line of support, the upper band of a wide range from 14,785 to 15,400. Within the band is the important 50-day moving average at 15,304. MACD is turning down, as is momentum and RSI (not shown).</span></div>
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<a class="fancybox aligncenter" href="http://investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/09-24-13-nasdaq.gif" style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; clear: both; color: #0079d1; display: block; line-height: normal; margin: 0px auto 18px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: center; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img alt="Nasdaq Chart" class="aligncenter size-medium wp-image-408078" height="196" src="http://investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/09-24-13-nasdaq-300x196.gif" style="background-color: transparent; border: none; clear: both; display: block; margin: 0px auto; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="300" /><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br />
Click to Enlarge</span></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">But while the Dow looks tired and due for a rest, the Nasdaq has barely felt the pressure of the profit-taking that has hit the Dow. The Nasdaq closed Monday just below its bullish resistance line at around 3,800, and is nicely above its bullish support line and 50-day moving average at 3,653. MACD is bullish.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><b style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Conclusion:</b> Again, the small-cap and mid-cap stocks are leading the market. But the indices that traditionally ignite markets to major bullish explosions, the S&P 500 and Dow, have low momentum readings, even appearing to be “out of gas” (<a href="http://investorplace.com/2013/09/daily-stock-market-news-expect-a-pullback-before-any-new-highs-are-made/" style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; color: #0079d1; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">see Monday’s chart of the S&P 500</a>). And a close below the S&P 500′s 1,680 to 1,690 zone would be a negative jolt for the entire stock market.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">But the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 are technically sound, and so the broad market will probably continue in the upper ranges of the support zones of each of these indices until late in October. A traditional Halloween treat may be the event that leads to another leg up.</span></div>
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04035672574882281484noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1870867579971469054.post-5792167155146425932013-09-03T07:34:00.000-04:002013-09-03T07:34:02.694-04:00Remain Fully Invested Until This Happens<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container zemanta-img" style="float: right; margin-right: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><div class="zemanta-img">
<a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/46478396@N04/4322854141" imageanchor="1" style="margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: clear:right;"><img alt="Dow Corning Chairman, President and CEO Stepha..." border="0" class="zemanta-img-inserted" height="180" src="http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2745/4322854141_848fea200c_m.jpg" style="border: none; font-size: 0.8em;" width="240" /></a></div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption zemanta-img-attribution" style="text-align: center; width: 240px;">Dow Corning Chairman, President and CEO Stephanie A. Burns (Photo credit: <a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/46478396@N04/4322854141" target="_blank">Saginaw Future Inc.</a>)</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">The long-term monthly chart of the S&P 500 confirms that a bull market is still in force</span></span><br />
<div class="entry-meta" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 0px; color: #252525; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; margin: 0px 0px 45px; orphans: auto; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><span class="meta-prep meta-prep-author" style="background-color: transparent; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 0px; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">By </span><span style="background-color: transparent; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 0px; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="http://investorplace.com/author/sam-collins/" style="background-color: transparent; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 0px; color: #0079d1; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">Sam Collins</a>, InvestorPlace Chief <a class="zem_slink" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technical_analysis" rel="wikipedia" target="_blank" title="Technical analysis">Technical Analyst</a></span><span class="meta-sep meta-sep-entry-date" style="background-color: transparent; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 0px; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">New York, Sep.3, stock market trading .- On Friday, the <a class="zem_slink" href="http://www.djaverages.com/?view=industrial&page=overview" rel="homepage" target="_blank" title="Dow Jones Industrial Average">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a> fell slightly as the possibility of a U.S.-led attack on Syria increased. And so, with the last trading day of August down, the single most-watched stock index in the world fell 4.4% for the month — its worst performance of the year.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Geopolitical tensions popped oil prices to over $107 a barrel, raising the possibility of higher prices at the pump. The impact of higher gasoline prices sent the Dow Jones Transportation Average down 1.1%. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Second-quarter <a class="zem_slink" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_growth" rel="wikipedia" target="_blank" title="Economic growth">GDP growth</a> was revised up to 2.5%, which is a positive. But slower homes sales, earnings misses in the retail sector, and the threat of the Fed cutting its purchase of bonds in September kept investors on the sidelines in anticipation of the long holiday weekend.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">At Friday’s close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 31 points to 14,810, the S&P 500 fell 5 points to 1,633, and the Nasdaq lost 30 points at 3,590. The NYSE traded 768 million shares and the Nasdaq crossed 383 million. Decliners led advancers by over 2-to-1 on the Big Board and by 3-to-1 on the Nasdaq.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">For the week, the Dow was off 1.3%, the S&P 500 fell 1.8%, and the Nasdaq declined 1.9%.</span></div>
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<a class="fancybox" href="http://investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/09-03-13-spx17.gif" style="background-color: transparent; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 0px; color: #0079d1; display: inline-block; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 18px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: center; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><img alt="SPX 17-Month Chart" class="alignnone size-medium wp-image-396234" height="188" src="http://investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/09-03-13-spx17-300x188.gif" style="background-color: transparent; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: none; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="300" /><br />
Click to Enlarge</span></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">The long-term monthly chart of the S&P 500 confirms that a bull market is still in force. And as long as the black monthly line fails to drop through the red moving average line, long-term investors should remain fully invested. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">However, the S&P 500 is 11.5% above the 17-month moving average, and prior market tops were made at 8.1% in August 2000 and 8.4% in October 2007. Thus, a caution flag is flying for the near and intermediate trends. Currently, the near-term trend is down and the intermediate-term is in doubt.</span></div>
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Click to Enlarge</span></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">The recent decline from the Aug. 2 high has resulted in a correction of over 4.5% in just a month. Now, with the market oversold, both MACD and our internal indicator, the Collins-Bollinger Reversal (CBR), predict a mild rally. Resistance to a near-term rally begins at the 50-day moving average at 1,660.</span></div>
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<a class="fancybox aligncenter" href="http://investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/09-03-13-rut.gif" style="background-color: transparent; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 0px; clear: both; color: #0079d1; display: block; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal; margin: 0px auto 18px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: center; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><img alt="RUT Chart" class="aligncenter size-medium wp-image-396236" height="187" src="http://investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/09-03-13-rut-300x187.gif" style="background-color: transparent; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: none; clear: both; display: block; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px auto; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="300" /><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Unlike the S&P 500, the Russell 2000 has broken an important support line — the upper line of the support band at 980 to 1,013. It has plummeted over 5% from its high made on Aug. 5. It is much more volatile than the S&P 500, so it could rally through both its 50-day and 20-day moving averages up to the resistance line at 1,044.</span></div>
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<a class="fancybox aligncenter" href="http://investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/09-03-13-dju.gif" style="background-color: transparent; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 0px; clear: both; color: #0079d1; display: block; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal; margin: 0px auto 18px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: center; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><img alt="DJU Chart" class="aligncenter size-medium wp-image-396237" height="190" src="http://investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/09-03-13-dju-300x190.gif" style="background-color: transparent; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: none; clear: both; display: block; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px auto; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="300" /><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">The weekly chart of the Dow Jones Utility Average indicates that following a spike in late April, and a subsequent correction, this index is now in a buy zone. As long as the index is above its major weekly bull market trendline (red dotted line), but under its 200-day moving average (solid red line), utility stocks should be accumulated for yield and growth. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Note that it has often traded below its 200-day moving average, but just once in the last three years pierced the bull market trendline. But even on that occasion in 2011, the index quickly reversed, and within a short time resumed its upward move.</span></div>
<div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 0px; color: #393f40; font-family: Arial; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 22px; margin: 0px 0px 20px; orphans: auto; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><b style="background-color: transparent; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 0px; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Conclusion:</b> Technical analysis is based upon the principle that humans will, under similar circumstances, react to the buying and selling of stocks much as they did in the past. So technical analysis is the study of the market itself and the reactions of literally millions of people, charting in graph form the price changes, volume, etc., and then deducing probable future trends.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Thus, the input that forms the chart is all-inclusive. By that I mean that it includes the reaction of buyers and sellers to every conceivable factor that can have an impact on a stock or index. In the longer term (months and years), it has proven to be extremely accurate. But in the time frame of days and weeks, because of volatility, it becomes more difficult to make accurate predictions.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">That, however, does not mean that technical analysis is of no use for short-term forecasting. Short-term trendlines, moving averages and volume indicators are invaluable to the trader. Unlike long-term patterns, short-term patterns change rapidly and can be used along with daily events to make quick, profitable trades as long as protective stop-loss strategies are implemented.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">With this in mind, I expect the market to rally this week because it is oversold in almost every respect. This oversold condition, coupled with the probability that the political and international situation has suddenly become less intense due to the surprise delay of military action against Syria, lead me to believe that buyers will push prices at least to the resistance zones illustrated in this morning’s charts.</span></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">...</span></b></div>
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04035672574882281484noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1870867579971469054.post-4195110390718556712013-08-27T08:27:00.000-04:002013-08-27T08:27:09.233-04:00Approach This Market With a Rifle, Not a Shotgun<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container zemanta-img" style="float: right; margin-right: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">In a highly charged, low-volume environment, it's better to take aim at specific stocks</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></span>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><span class="meta-prep meta-prep-author" style="background-color: transparent; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 0px; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">By </span><span style="background-color: transparent; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 0px; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="http://investorplace.com/author/sam-collins/" style="background-color: transparent; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 0px; color: #0079d1; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">Sam Collins</a>, InvestorPlace Chief Technical Analyst</span><span class="meta-sep meta-sep-entry-date" style="background-color: transparent; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 0px; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">New York, Aug.27, stock investment .- The stock market was slammed in the final hour of trading on Monday following a statement from <a class="zem_slink" href="http://www.rottentomatoes.com/celebrity/1008257-john_kerry" rel="rottentomatoes" target="_blank" title="John Kerry">Secretary of State John Kerry</a> that <a class="zem_slink" href="http://www.barackobama.com/" rel="homepage" target="_blank" title="Barack Obama">President Obama</a> may be considering military action against Syria for the recent use of chemical weapons on civilians.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Low volume contributed to the volatility, and the late selling was attributed to <a class="zem_slink" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Short_%28finance%29" rel="wikipedia" target="_blank" title="Short (finance)">short sales</a> and protective strategies in advance of the possibility of an even broader sell-off. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">At Monday’s close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was off 64 points to 14,946, the S&P 500 fell 7 points to 1,657, and the Nasdaq broke even at 3,658. The NYSE traded 546 million shares and the Nasdaq crossed just 336 million. Decliners led advancers on both exchanges by about 1.3-to-1.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">The S&P 500 was holding its own, above its 50-day moving average, until the last hour when the sell-off hit almost all sectors. The selling also sent MACD slightly lower, cancelling the small upturn in its fast line noted last week. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">The index now has clearly defined resistance lines that must be overcome if it is to move ahead in October. First, it must decisively overcome its 50-day moving average, now at 1,660, and then the resistance line at 1,676, which was its breakdown point on Aug. 15.</span></div>
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<a class="fancybox aligncenter" href="http://investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/08-27-13-rut.gif" style="background-color: transparent; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 0px; clear: both; color: #0079d1; display: block; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal; margin: 0px auto 18px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: center; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><img alt="RUT Chart" class="aligncenter size-medium wp-image-393378" height="185" src="http://investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/08-27-13-rut-300x185.gif" style="background-color: transparent; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: none; clear: both; display: block; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px auto; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="300" /><br />
Click to Enlarge</span></a></div>
<div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 0px; color: #393f40; font-family: Arial; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 22px; margin: 0px 0px 20px; orphans: auto; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Small caps advanced slightly Monday but were victims of the volatility associated with the collision of low volume and negative headline news.</span></div>
<div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 0px; color: #393f40; font-family: Arial; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 22px; margin: 0px 0px 20px; orphans: auto; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">The current resistance for the Russell 2000 is at the confluence of its breakdown line and 20-day moving average at 1,042. Like the S&P 500, the Russell’s MACD has turned flat — not a bullish indication. </span></div>
<div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 0px; color: #393f40; font-family: Arial; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 22px; margin: 0px 0px 20px; orphans: auto; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><b style="background-color: transparent; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 0px; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Conclusion:</b> This week, the major indices may be just too difficult to trade since the low volume associated with the “dog days of summer” at the top of a major market advance can lead to extremely high volatility. </span></div>
<div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 0px; color: #393f40; font-family: Arial; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 22px; margin: 0px 0px 20px; orphans: auto; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">But that doesn’t mean that tradable opportunities don’t exist. Rather than swinging at the difficult-to-predict indices, it might be more profitable to concentrate on specific stocks like our <a href="http://investorplace.com/2013/08/trade-of-the-day-3d-systems-ddd/" style="background-color: transparent; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 0px; color: #0079d1; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">Trade of the Day</a>, <b style="background-color: transparent; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 0px; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">3D Systems</b> (<a href="http://studio-5.financialcontent.com/investplace/quote?Symbol=DDD" style="background-color: transparent; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 0px; color: #0079d1; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">DDD</a>), or <b style="background-color: transparent; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 0px; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Microsoft</b> (<a href="http://studio-5.financialcontent.com/investplace/quote?Symbol=MSFT" style="background-color: transparent; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 0px; color: #0079d1; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">MSFT</a>). If you are bearish, short stocks in the homebuilding sector like <b style="background-color: transparent; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 0px; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Lennar </b>(<a href="http://studio-5.financialcontent.com/investplace/quote?Symbol=LEN" style="background-color: transparent; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 0px; color: #0079d1; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">LEN</a>). </span></div>
<div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 0px; color: #393f40; font-family: Arial; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 22px; margin: 0px 0px 20px; orphans: auto; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Using a “rifle approach” to trading can be more profitable than the “shotgun approach” in a highly charged, low-volume environment.</span></div>
<b><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">...</span></b><br />
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04035672574882281484noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1870867579971469054.post-28876573564810264432013-08-27T08:17:00.000-04:002013-08-27T08:17:36.407-04:00How to Spark a Fear Rally<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container zemanta-img" style="float: right; margin-right: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
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<a href="http://commons.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Bulle_und_B%C3%A4r_Frankfurt.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: clear:right;"><img alt="Bull and bear in front of the Frankfurt Stock ..." border="0" class="zemanta-img-inserted" height="199" src="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/4/45/Bulle_und_B%C3%A4r_Frankfurt.jpg/300px-Bulle_und_B%C3%A4r_Frankfurt.jpg" style="border: none; font-size: 0.8em;" width="300" /></a></div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption zemanta-img-attribution" style="text-align: center; width: 300px;">Bull and bear in front of the Frankfurt Stock Exchange (Photo credit: <a href="http://commons.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Bulle_und_B%C3%A4r_Frankfurt.jpg" target="_blank">Wikipedia</a>)</td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">By Rude Awakening</span><br />
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width: 580px;">
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<td style="width: 580px;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br />
Baltimore, Aug.27, stock investing .- The sky is falling. Investors are panicking. But the market? The S&P is down about 2.5% from its August 2nd peak. What you're witnessing right now is the perfect recipe for a fear rally. I briefly mentioned Friday morning that investors pulled a net $9.4 billion out of U.S. <a class="zem_slink" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stock_fund" rel="wikipedia" target="_blank" title="Stock fund">stock funds</a> last week. It's obvious the herd is terrified. Even the sentiment polls have sharply reversed from bullish to downright bearish…</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br />
"Turning to what caught my eye this week, sentiment polls showed some amazing spikes in fear on a less-than-5% pullback. As contrarians, this is exactly what you want to see," opines <a _macro_info="notrack" href="http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/commentary/content/ezines/should+we+be+scared+of+september+maybe+not/mondaymorningoutlook.aspx?id=117510">Ryan Detrick, Schaeffer's senior technical analyst</a>. "It doesn't mean the market has to bottom here and now, but it increases the odds of a lasting rally once we get moving again."<br />
<br />
Case in point: the <a class="zem_slink" href="http://www.aaii.com/" rel="homepage" target="_blank" title="American Association of Individual Investors">American Association of Individual Investors</a> poll. Detrick notes the bears (the poll now has them at 52%) have advanced for six consecutive weeks. That hasn't happened since the AAII poll first started 26 years ago...<br />
<br />
Adding to the slipping sentiment numbers is hard evidence proving many investors want nothing more to do with this market. Turning back to fund outflows, you can clearly see investors have abruptly turned on this year's <a class="zem_slink" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Market_trend" rel="wikipedia" target="_blank" title="Market trend">bull market</a>.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><img border="0" id="_x0000_i1026" src="http://dailyreckoning.com/dr-content/uploads/2013/08/RUD_08-26-13_Heart.png" width="580" /></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br />
That's no mistake. We really did just witness the largest outflows from equity funds in more than five years. This fact is even more incredible when you realize that just two summers ago, eurozone fears helped crater the markets nearly 20%-- yet this month's small dip has triggered far more selling…<br />
<br />
Fund outflows and newly bearish sentiment are setting us up for a bounce. While I still don't like the weakness we're seeing in the Dow, popular momentum stocks have held up well during this market pause. If these names continue to move toward new breakouts, you can expect the overall market's performance to improve as well over the next couple of weeks.<br />
<br />
Fight any urge to "trade scared" this week. Set your brain to buy-the-dip mode while most investors are running from the market…<br />
<br />
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<td style="width: 580px;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">.</span></td>
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04035672574882281484noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1870867579971469054.post-24668314975832256792013-08-27T08:09:00.000-04:002013-08-27T08:09:15.079-04:00Get Ready for the Annual Retail Rebound<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container zemanta-img" style="float: right; margin-right: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
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<a href="http://commons.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Walmart_smlb.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: clear:right;"><img alt="English: simulated Wal-Mart logo" border="0" class="zemanta-img-inserted" height="74" src="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/9/9b/Walmart_smlb.png/300px-Walmart_smlb.png" style="border: none; font-size: 0.8em;" width="300" /></a></div>
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<tr><td class="tr-caption zemanta-img-attribution" style="text-align: center; width: 300px;">English: simulated Wal-Mart logo (Photo credit: <a href="http://commons.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Walmart_smlb.png" target="_blank">Wikipedia</a>)</td></tr>
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<strong><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">By Wealthy Retirement</span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></strong>
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">New York, Aug.27, stock advice .- You may have come across this headline from a mainstream media outlet last Wednesday:</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br />
<em>"Staples Plunges in One of Its Worst Sessions Ever"</em><br />
<br />
The article pointed out how Wednesday's single-day plunge of 15% was one of the worst single-day losses <strong>Staples</strong> (Nasdaq: SPLS) has ever suffered... Second only to... <em>drumroll, please</em>... Aug. 15, 2012, when it fell 14.6%.<br />
<br />
What struck me as odd (and bordering on lazy) was that the writer of this article - as well as the doomsaying commenters on the same article - failed to connect the dots. Think about it. The same company suffered near-15% one-day drops a year apart, almost to the day.<br />
<br />
Instead, the writer wasted readers' time lamenting that retailers are reporting lackluster second quarter results as the consumer remains cautious. <em>Yawn</em>...<br />
<br />
What I'm about to show you is that these two significant one-day drops (which both <em>just so happened</em> to occur on the day of the company's second quarter earnings release) are no coincidence. And once you understand what's happening, you can greatly improve your investing results - while substantially cutting your risk.<br />
<br />
Here's what I mean...<br />
<br />
<strong><a class="zem_slink" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Do_You_See" rel="wikipedia" target="_blank" title="Do You See">Do You See</a> a Pattern?</strong><br />
<br />
I'm just tossing this out there: <em>Maybe Staples' second quarter results are consistently terrible. Maybe, you shouldn't buy Staples shares before its second quarter earnings release...</em><br />
<br />
Let's take a look at Staples' quarterly revenue results:</span><br />
<div align="center">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><a href="http://click.wealthyretirement.com/t/CQ/TTQ/T6g/AARp6A/StE/ODM4Njh8aHR0cDovL3dlYWx0aHlyZXRpcmVtZW50LmNvbS93cC1jb250ZW50L3VwbG9hZHMvMjAxMy8wOC8wODI2X1N0YXBsZXMuZ2lm./AQ/flo6"><img border="0" id="_x0000_i1025" src="http://wealthyretirement.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/0826_Staples.jpg" /></a><br />
<br />
<a href="http://click.wealthyretirement.com/t/CQ/TTQ/T6g/AARp6A/StE/ODM4Njl8aHR0cDovL3dlYWx0aHlyZXRpcmVtZW50LmNvbS93cC1jb250ZW50L3VwbG9hZHMvMjAxMy8wOC8wODI2X1N0YXBsZXMuZ2lm./AQ/Mzu6">View larger image</a></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br />
What should be jumping out at you is that the second quarter for Staples is consistently its worst quarter... The only year it wasn't was in 2009, when the first quarter was the bottom.<br />
<br />
We also see that the third and fourth quarters are consistently its strongest of the year.<br />
<br />
That means the guy who wrote <em>"Staples Plunges in One of Its Worst Sessions Ever"</em> had the opportunity to tell investors that this is a frequent occurrence for the quarter... But he didn't.<br />
<br />
<strong>Who's Buying in Summer? </strong><em><strong>No One...</strong></em><br />
<br />
Now, let's look at the entire retail sector as a whole. There are plenty of headlines speculating on doom-and-gloom for the industry as second quarter results were largely lackluster.<br />
<br />
In the following chart you'll see my Prime System Retail Index, which I use in <em>Emerging Trends Trader</em>. This index is made up of 21 companies. These include teen apparel retailers, big-box <a class="zem_slink" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Discount_store" rel="wikipedia" target="_blank" title="Discount store">discount stores</a> - such as <strong>Target </strong>(NYSE: TGT), <strong>Wal-Mart </strong>(NYSE: WMT) and <strong>Costco </strong>(Nasdaq: COST) - as well as mall-based chains and retail advertisers.<br />
<br />
Here is how the Prime System Retail Index has performed from May to October since 2000 to today:</span><br />
<div align="center">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><a href="http://click.wealthyretirement.com/t/CQ/TTQ/T6g/AARp6A/StE/ODM4NzB8aHR0cDovL3dlYWx0aHlyZXRpcmVtZW50LmNvbS93cC1jb250ZW50L3VwbG9hZHMvMjAxMy8wOC8wODI2X1BTUl9NYXktT2N0LmdpZg./AQ/A-Jr"><img border="0" id="_x0000_i1026" src="http://wealthyretirement.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/0826_PSR_May-Oct.jpg" /></a><br />
<br />
<a href="http://click.wealthyretirement.com/t/CQ/TTQ/T6g/AARp6A/StE/ODM4NzF8aHR0cDovL3dlYWx0aHlyZXRpcmVtZW50LmNvbS93cC1jb250ZW50L3VwbG9hZHMvMjAxMy8wOC8wODI2X1BTUl9NYXktT2N0LmdpZg./AQ/P6Jd">View larger image</a></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br />
<em>That's a lot of red isn't it?</em><br />
<br />
In 14 years, there have been only five years of gains from May to October - during which the retail industry reports second quarter results. And 2003 and 2009 - the best years during this mid-year stretch - were both rebound years after market collapses.<br />
<br />
So, you have to ask yourself: <em>Is this year any different? Are shares of retailers acting outside of this normal seasonal pattern?</em><br />
<br />
Currently, the Prime System Retail Index is down 3.99% since the start of May. The average return for this index from May to October over the last 14 years is <em>-3.73%</em>.<br />
<br />
On average, eight companies in the Prime System Index will see a positive gain during the stretch from May to October...<br />
<br />
And right now, there are exactly eight companies in the green.<br />
<br />
Both figures are in line with the long-term average of the Prime System Retail Index.<br />
<br />
That means what's unfolding right now is nothing that's out of character for the sector... <em>In fact, this is exactly what we want. </em><br />
<br />
<strong>Hello Holidays!</strong><br />
<br />
Obviously, the stock market is about <a class="zem_slink" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long_%28finance%29" rel="wikipedia" target="_blank" title="Long (finance)">buying low and selling high</a>.<br />
<br />
There's a pretty good chance if you're buying retail stocks in late spring, or before the second quarter earnings season, you're buying at a high point and are going to have to suffer through the seasonal low points we see for shares.<br />
<br />
Now let's take a look at that same index and how the companies perform from October to May - the Prime Period for retail stocks (going from their low point to a high point)...</span><br />
<div align="center">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><a href="http://click.wealthyretirement.com/t/CQ/TTQ/T6g/AARp6A/StE/ODM4NzJ8aHR0cDovL3dlYWx0aHlyZXRpcmVtZW50LmNvbS93cC1jb250ZW50L3VwbG9hZHMvMjAxMy8wOC8wODI2X1BTUl9PY3QtTWF5LmdpZg./AQ/HfeK"><img border="0" id="_x0000_i1027" src="http://wealthyretirement.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/0826_PSR_Oct-May.jpg" /></a><br />
<br />
<a href="http://click.wealthyretirement.com/t/CQ/TTQ/T6g/AARp6A/StE/ODM4NzN8aHR0cDovL3dlYWx0aHlyZXRpcmVtZW50LmNvbS93cC1jb250ZW50L3VwbG9hZHMvMjAxMy8wOC8wODI2X1BTUl9PY3QtTWF5LmdpZg./AQ/6Y2y">View larger image</a></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">It's a totally different picture, isn't it?<br />
<br />
Lots of green... And lots of solid returns year after year.<br />
<br />
There were only two years of losses... The rest were all <em>double-digit gains, with six years of gains of 20% or more</em>.<br />
<br />
The average return of the Prime System Retail Index from October to May since 2000 has been <em>20.63%</em>.<br />
<br />
On top of that, the average number of companies that have a positive gain during this Prime Period for retailers is 15 - <em>almost double the number of those that see positive gains on average from May to October</em>.<br />
<br />
That's a pretty significant trend.<br />
<br />
So, now you have to ask yourself: <em>Is this year any different?</em><br />
<br />
Are you going to let the mainstream media fear over retailers make you afraid? Or are you going to start creating a shopping list right now for retail stocks while there is blood in the streets and you know that the best time for the shares are ahead?<br />
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">.</span><br />
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04035672574882281484noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1870867579971469054.post-9508674969755990592013-08-27T08:02:00.000-04:002013-08-27T08:02:50.771-04:00YouTube Boob Tube for the Taper Solution<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container zemanta-img" style="float: right; margin-right: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
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<a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/56597995@N00/88644497" imageanchor="1" style="margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: clear:right;"><img alt="Kicking Television" border="0" class="zemanta-img-inserted" height="180" src="http://farm1.static.flickr.com/26/88644497_e2a7de0294_m.jpg" style="border: none; font-size: 0.8em;" width="240" /></a></div>
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<tr><td class="tr-caption zemanta-img-attribution" style="text-align: center; width: 240px;">Kicking Television (Photo credit: <a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/56597995@N00/88644497" target="_blank">dhammza</a>)</td></tr>
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<strong><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">By Daily Reckoning</span></strong><br />
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<td colspan="3" style="width: 580px;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Washington, Aug.27, online stock trading .- There are big bucks on the boob tube. When I was a kid, one of my mother's most common chastisements was to turn off the TV and go do something else. In her mind, anything was better than sitting relentlessly in front of the boob tube watching inane programs.<br />
<br />
Well, it seems Ma was wrong. Not only did my retinas not burn out from staring at the TV, but I've managed to make over 128% so far this year by simply keeping an eye on it. I'd like to highlight some television companies that may be worthy of your investment dollars--especially if you're looking for a play that won't be affected by the Fed's taper talk.<br />
<br />
Because despite what you may have heard, television is far from dead. On any given day, some 2.2 trillion hours of television are being watched across the United States, according to Nielsen.<br />
More surprisingly, people watch television over 4.6 times longer than they surf the Web, according to recent data from <a class="zem_slink" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_media" rel="wikipedia" target="_blank" title="New media">New Media</a> TrendWatch.<br />
<br />
So it boggles my mind that so many stock-picking gurus have been touting Web companies with questionable revenue streams. Consider Facebook, which has barely made it back to its IPO price. In fact, more than 54% of the Web company stocks tracked by the Dow Jones <a class="zem_slink" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internet" rel="wikipedia" target="_blank" title="Internet">Internet</a> index have lost money or trailed the S&P 500.<br />
<br />
Meanwhile, we've been quietly racking up gains with what's really making money in the modern media age.<br />
<br />
Simply put, it pays to advertise. Almost all media live and die by advertising revenue. And advertisers have a very good reason to continue throwing their money at television stations -- nothing else can match their scope.<br />
<br />
Television has the reach of nearly 89% of the total U.S. population. Radio offers only a scant 58.8% reach. Newspapers fall to a mere 36.1% of the nation. (No wonder <em>The New York Times</em> and <em>Washington Post</em> both dumped newspaper assets.)<br />
<br />
The only thing that comes close to matching television's reach is the Internet -- currently hitting 73.1% of the population. Good, but nowhere near the total reach of television.<br />
<br />
And advertisers know that not only do they reach more folks through television, but also they get more action. Advertising industry studies show that nearly 40% of consumers first learn of brands that they buy from TV ads, compared with only 8.7% from Internet ads.<br />
<br />
Furthermore, 37.2% of people cite television ads when making purchasing decisions, against a paltry 5.6% who cite Internet ads.<br />
<br />
This all points to the obvious -- that television controls the vast majority of ad spending. It now makes up 54% of all U.S. ad spending… up from 52% just a few years ago.<br />
<br />
But there's even more good news on the television ad market. Local television websites continue to draw in new viewers, and ad dollars have followed. Local online advertising revenues nationwide are up over 175.19% over the past five years -- 1.3 times higher than the overall growth of <a class="zem_slink" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Online_advertising" rel="wikipedia" target="_blank" title="Online advertising">Internet advertising</a> spending.<br />
<br />
Of course, audiences aren't the only thing about television that's growing. Televisions themselves have gotten huge. Decades ago, a 25-inch screen was a big deal. Today, you'll find screens reaching 40, 50, 60 and 80 inches… and even bigger. (Most of them built with technology from another favorite company of mine, Samsung Electronics. But that's a story for another issue.)<br />
<br />
But the same concept of bigger is better is what's happening for television station companies as well. They're expanding into markets around their home regions and nationwide.<br />
<br />
There are some key reasons for this. First, as noted above, television dominates media attention and spending. So the more stations you own, the better.<br />
<br />
Second, expanding regionally helps lower costs. If you have news reporters in each locality, you can have fewer covering larger-scale events.<br />
<br />
Also, when it comes time to buy content for your television stations, the more eyeballs you can reach, the better the deals you can cut with distributors.</span></td>
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Increasingly, the bigger television companies with more market controls are even getting national networks to pay them to put their content out on local broadcasts. And the same goes for cable and satellite providers. They know all too well that folks demand local news and content, as well as network broadcasts that all have to flow through or from local television companies.<br />
<br />
Third, there's been a major shift in the way television is broadcast -- and it's continuing to evolve, setting up another major growth area for television broadcast companies.<br />
<br />
Back in 2009, the U.S. government mandated a switch from analog television broadcasting to digital.<br />
<br />
But with the newer digital broadcasting standards, broadcast television companies discovered they were using less spectrum than they were allotted. So now companies are using that excess spectrum to roll out additional channels that are even more tailored to specific viewer groups.<br />
<br />
This sets up whole new revenue streams that advertisers and content providers are eager to work with, resulting in more cash for broadcasters.<br />
<br />
And it gets even better. Wireless data for smartphones and tablets demand more and more bandwidth -- and companies like Dish Network and even the U.S. government want to buy, or at least contract to use, some of the excess spectrum broadcasters are sitting on.<br />
<br />
This means that broadcast companies are sitting on an increasingly valuable additional asset.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><img border="0" id="_x0000_i1025" src="http://dailyreckoning.com/dr-content/uploads/2013/08/Television-444x580.jpg" width="350" /><br />
<em>1.3 times higher advertising spending than overall growth in Internet spending? Groovy.</em></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br />
Armed with all of this good news, leaders in local television are scrambling to buy more local stations and other broadcast companies.<br />
<br />
Deals are now coming at a fast pace. Tribune has upped its television companies by 100%, to 42 nationwide. Its latest deal bought out 19 stations from privately held Local TV Holdings. And Gannett is in the process of expanding its station count to 43, with the additional 20 coming from its deal to absorb Belo.<br />
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For <em>Lifetime Income Report</em> readers, I've picked out three specific broadcasting companies -- with market caps of a billion dollars or less -- that make for very tempting new targets for speculative investors.<br />
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<b><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">...</span></b><br />
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04035672574882281484noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1870867579971469054.post-80998595699754509642013-08-22T08:26:00.000-04:002013-08-22T08:26:28.098-04:00The Bear Market Isn’t Here Yet, But…<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container zemanta-img" style="float: right; margin-right: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
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<a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/33174580@N00/2927031931" imageanchor="1" style="margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: clear:right;"><img alt="New York Stock Exchange" border="0" class="zemanta-img-inserted" height="180" src="http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3189/2927031931_5e20116826_m.jpg" style="border: none; font-size: 0.8em;" width="240" /></a></div>
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<tr><td class="tr-caption zemanta-img-attribution" style="text-align: center;">New York Stock Exchange (Photo credit: <a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/33174580@N00/2927031931" target="_blank">Mike_fleming</a>)</td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">Resistance will prove tough to overcome and risk is incredibly high</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></span>
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<div class="entry-meta" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 0px; color: #252525; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; margin: 0px 0px 45px; orphans: auto; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><span class="meta-prep meta-prep-author" style="background-color: transparent; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 0px; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">By </span><span style="background-color: transparent; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 0px; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="http://investorplace.com/author/sam-collins/" style="background-color: transparent; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 0px; color: #0079d1; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">Sam Collins</a>, InvestorPlace Chief Technical Analyst</span><span class="meta-sep meta-sep-entry-date" style="background-color: transparent; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 0px; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></span></div>
<div class="entry-meta" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 0px; color: #252525; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; margin: 0px 0px 45px; orphans: auto; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">New York Aug.22, national stock exchange .- “Uncertainty” was the word most often heard Wednesday following the release of the minutes of the <a class="zem_slink" href="http://www.federalreserve.gov/" rel="homepage" target="_blank" title="Federal Reserve System">Federal Reserve</a>’s policy meeting in July. “Tapering,” the gradual cutting of the Fed’s bond purchase plan, will probably begin in September, according to the interpretation of the minutes.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Bonds fell in reaction to the notes, as did stocks, mainly because the injection of cash into the financial system appears to have had only a small impact on jobs growth.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">The report said, “Nonetheless, the unemployment rate remained elevated, and the continuing low readings on the participation rate and the <a class="zem_slink" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Employment-to-population_ratio" rel="wikipedia" target="_blank" title="Employment-to-population ratio">employment-to-population ratio</a>, together with a high incidence of workers being employed part time for economic reasons, were generally seen as indicating that overall labor market conditions remained weak.”</span></div>
<div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 0px; color: #393f40; font-family: Arial; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 22px; margin: 0px 0px 20px; orphans: auto; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">At Wednesday’s close, the <a class="zem_slink" href="http://www.djaverages.com/?view=industrial&page=overview" rel="homepage" target="_blank" title="Dow Jones Industrial Average">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a> was off 105 points at 14,898, the S&P 500 fell 10 points to 1,643, and the Nasdaq lost 14 points at 3,600. The NYSE traded 657 million shares and the Nasdaq crossed 359 million. Decliners outpaced advancers on the NYSE by 2.8- to-1 and on the Nasdaq by 2.1-to-1.</span></div>
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<a class="fancybox" href="http://investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/08-22-13-nyse.gif" style="background-color: transparent; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 0px; color: #0079d1; display: inline-block; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 18px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: center; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><img alt="NYSE Chart" class="alignnone size-medium wp-image-391089" height="186" src="http://investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/08-22-13-nyse-300x186.gif" style="background-color: transparent; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: none; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="300" /><br />
Click to Enlarge</span></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">The New York Stock Exchange Composite Index contains generally higher-quality stocks. But like the other higher-quality indices, the Dow 30 and the S&P 500, it too has failed to find support at the crucial 50-day moving average mark. Its next support is at the intermediate support line at around 9,200. MACD is on a sell signal.</span></div>
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<a class="fancybox aligncenter" href="http://investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/08-22-13-dji1.gif" style="background-color: transparent; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 0px; clear: both; color: #0079d1; display: block; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal; margin: 0px auto 18px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: center; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><img alt="Dow Chart" class="aligncenter size-medium wp-image-391090" height="190" src="http://investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/08-22-13-dji1-300x190.gif" style="background-color: transparent; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: none; clear: both; display: block; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px auto; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="300" /><br />
Click to Enlarge</span></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">The Dow Jones Industrial Average broke its 50-day moving average, as well as its intermediate support line five sessions ago. Wednesday’s late sell-off puts the index in line for a serious attack on the support line at 14,845, its breakout point in August. A failure to hold that line would put the 200-day moving average in its sight — and threaten the long-term bull market.</span></div>
<div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 0px; color: #393f40; font-family: Arial; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 22px; margin: 0px 0px 20px; orphans: auto; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><b style="background-color: transparent; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 0px; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Conclusion:</b> Technically, the better-quality stocks are facing a battery of resistance that should stymie short-term rallies. When each support line is broken, that line then becomes a resistance line — a place which has proven to be where sellers lurk. In addition, the overall configuration of the Dow is taking on the form of a broad topping process that would be complete with a close under 14,845.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">In his recent Street Smart Report, Sy Harding referred to another excellent technician, Mark Hulbert, who sees three signs of a market top:</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">First, the S&P 500 is up 23% in the last 12 months. Most bull markets top at over 21%.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Next, one of the most striking patterns about the month leading to a top is that the “riskiest stocks far outperform conservative ones.” We’ve discussed that at length in this column.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Finally, he mentions Warren Buffett’s favorite measure of market valuation — market capitalization versus GDP. In July, it reached 118%. The last times it went over 100% were in 1999 and 2007.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">I, like Sy, don’t believe that we are beginning a bear market, although as he puts it, “But the risk is as high as in 2000 and 2007.” Ouch!</span></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">...</span></b></div>
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04035672574882281484noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1870867579971469054.post-4210802641548487392013-08-22T08:16:00.000-04:002013-08-22T08:16:05.067-04:00Global selling pressure<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><b>By Colin Twiggs</b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><b><br /></b></span>
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Sydney, Aug.22, investment opportunities .- The S&P 500 Index broke medium-term support at 1650 and is headed for a test of the rising trendline. Respect would indicate the primary up-trend is intact, but bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of selling pressure. This is also evidenced by the marginal new high in August. A test of primary support at 1560 is likely. Breach would offer a target of 1400*.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span>
<br />
<div align="center">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><img alt="S&P 500 Index" height="450" id="_x0000_i1025" src="http://static.incrediblecharts.com/images/2013/2013-08-22-spx.png" title="S&P 500 Index" width="665" /></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">* Target calculation: 1550 - ( 1700 - 1550 ) = 1400</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Dow Jones Europe Index also displays marginal new highs in May and August. Penetration of the rising trendline indicates the up-trend is losing momentum — also indicated by bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Momentum. Reversal below support at 290 would strengthen the warning, but only failure of support at 270 would signal a trend reversal.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><img alt="Dow Jones Europe Index" height="450" id="_x0000_i1026" src="http://static.incrediblecharts.com/images/2013/2013-08-22-e1dow.png" title="Dow Jones Europe Index" width="665" /></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">China's Shanghai Composite Index ran into strong resistance at 2100. Declining 13-week Twiggs Money Flow (below zero) warns of selling pressure. Reversal below 2050 would indicate another test of primary support at 1950, suggesting a decline to 1800*. Breakout above 2200 and the descending trendline is unlikely, but would signal that a bottom has formed.</span><br />
<div align="center">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><img alt="Shanghai Composite Index" height="450" id="_x0000_i1027" src="http://static.incrediblecharts.com/images/2013/2013-08-22-ssec.png" title="Shanghai Composite Index" width="665" /></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Japan's <a class="zem_slink" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nikkei_225" rel="wikipedia" target="_blank" title="Nikkei 225">Nikkei 225</a> broke medium-term support at 13500. Follow-through below 13250 would indicate a correction to primary support at 12500. Penetration of the rising trendline suggests that the primary up-trend is losing momentum. Earlier bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow also warns of a reversal. Recovery above the declining trendline is less likely, but would indicate the correction has ended.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><img alt="Nikkei 225 index" height="450" id="_x0000_i1028" src="http://static.incrediblecharts.com/images/2013/2013-08-22-n225.png" title="Nikkei 225 index" width="665" /></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">India's <a class="zem_slink" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BSE_SENSEX" rel="wikipedia" target="_blank" title="BSE SENSEX">Sensex</a> broke primary support at 18500, following through below 18000 to remove any doubt. The primary trend has reversed after a triple top and now offers a target of 16500*. Declining 13-week Twiggs Money Flow confirms selling pressure. Recovery above 18500 is unlikely, but would warn of a bear trap.</span><br />
<div align="center">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><img alt="Sensex" height="450" id="_x0000_i1029" src="http://static.incrediblecharts.com/images/2013/2013-08-22-bse.png" title="Sensex" width="665" /></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">* Target calculation: 18500 - ( 20500 - 18500 ) = 16500</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">The ASX 200 is consolidating in a broadening top around the 2010/2011 high of 5000. Correction to 4900 would be quite acceptable, garnering support for an advance to the upper border, but breach of 4900 would indicate a failed swing, warning of reversal to a primary down-trend. Failure of primary support at 4650 would confirm. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates selling pressure; strengthened if the indicator reverses below zero. Respect of support at 5000 is less likely, despite the long tail on today's candle, but would offer a target of 5300*.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><img alt="ASX 200" height="450" id="_x0000_i1030" src="http://static.incrediblecharts.com/images/2013/2013-08-22-asx.png" title="ASX 200" width="665" /></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">* Target calculation: 5150 + ( 5150 - 5000 ) = 5300 <b>...</b></span><br />
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04035672574882281484noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1870867579971469054.post-4120060489258531042013-08-22T08:00:00.000-04:002013-08-22T08:00:21.696-04:003 Reasons to Ditch Your Bear Suit<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container zemanta-img" style="float: right; margin-right: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
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<a href="http://commons.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Bulle_und_B%C3%A4r_Frankfurt.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: clear:right;"><img alt="Bull and bear in front of the Frankfurt Stock ..." border="0" class="zemanta-img-inserted" height="199" src="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/4/45/Bulle_und_B%C3%A4r_Frankfurt.jpg/300px-Bulle_und_B%C3%A4r_Frankfurt.jpg" style="border: none; font-size: 0.8em;" width="300" /></a></div>
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<tr><td class="tr-caption zemanta-img-attribution" style="text-align: center; width: 300px;">Bull and bear in front of the Frankfurt Stock Exchange (Photo credit: <a href="http://commons.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Bulle_und_B%C3%A4r_Frankfurt.jpg" target="_blank">Wikipedia</a>)</td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><b>By Rude Awakening</b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><b><br /></b></span>
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Baltimore, Aug.21, free portfolios .- Don't give up on stocks just yet. In this market, the early bear gets squeezed.<br />
<br />
It's just plain dangerous to bet against a low-volume drop like we're seeing right now. Heck, we're not even officially experiencing a correction. Or a meaningful dip. But that hasn't stopped the crash brigade from declaring once again that this is the beginning of the end for stocks…<br />
<br />
"Suddenly, everyone is talking about this being a correction. I would say that at the current moment, we are just barely in a dip but possibly headed toward a correction," says <a _macro_info="notrack" href="http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2013/08/20/a-field-guide-to-stock-market-corrections/" target="_blank">Josh Brown of <em>The Reformed Broker</em></a>. "With a market pause that is not yet even a 5% dip - let alone a 10%+ correction - people (myself included) have been jumping the gun in trotting out the C-word so early."<br />
<br />
He's not alone.<br />
<br />
These low-volume drops have investors running in circles. There are no bulls in sight. Everyone is expecting the worst…<br />
<br />
I'm not saying you should completely ignore this month's market action. But there's no reason to sell everything and set yourself on fire out on the front lawn…<br />
<br />
Here are three reasons you shouldn't jump headfirst into the <a class="zem_slink" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Market_trend" rel="wikipedia" target="_blank" title="Market trend">bear market</a> camp just yet:<br />
<br />
<strong>1. It's August </strong><br />
<br />
Trading volume is almost non-existent right now. And for the past several years, we've seen quite a few wild price swings in August that didn't stick. It's entirely possible that buyers kick it back into gear after Labor Day…<br />
<br />
<strong>2. The Taper is coming? </strong><br />
<br />
Every dip in this market since the November 2012 bottom has coincided with a big policy fear. First it was the <a class="zem_slink" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_fiscal_cliff" rel="wikipedia" target="_blank" title="United States fiscal cliff">Fiscal Cliff</a>. Then it was Sequestration. Now it's the Taper. The safe bet so far is that none of it really matters as much as people think it does.<br />
<br />
<strong>3. Hysteria </strong><br />
<br />
Investors should welcome a dip. Dips are opportunity. But that's not the vibe I'm getting as the market creeps lower this month.<br />
<br />
Bespoke Investment Group reports that bullish sentiment among newsletter writers has declined to its lowest levels since late June. This piece of data is usually a great contrarian indicator.<br />
<br />
Also, don't ignore pockets of strength in this market. While the Dow coughed up its gains yesterday and closed in the red, the Russell 2000 finished the <a class="zem_slink" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trading_day" rel="wikipedia" target="_blank" title="Trading day">trading day</a> up more than 1.5%.<br />
<br />
It's never a good idea to trade on your fears. Keep a level head and let price guide your decisions. The dog days of summer are almost behind us…</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">.</span><br />
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04035672574882281484noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1870867579971469054.post-43371178601017575132013-08-22T07:59:00.002-04:002013-08-22T07:59:57.102-04:00The Timeless Wisdom of Izzy Stone<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container zemanta-img" style="float: right; margin-right: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
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<a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/26503922@N08/6233679473" imageanchor="1" style="margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: clear:right;"><img alt="Stones" border="0" class="zemanta-img-inserted" height="180" src="http://farm7.static.flickr.com/6219/6233679473_64338dd3a6_m.jpg" style="border: none; font-size: 0.8em;" width="240" /></a></div>
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<tr><td class="tr-caption zemanta-img-attribution" style="text-align: center; width: 240px;">Stones (Photo credit: <a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/26503922@N08/6233679473" target="_blank">rkramer62</a>)</td></tr>
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<strong><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">By Daily Reckoning</span></strong><br />
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<td style="width: 580px;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Chicago, Aug.22, free stock tips .- "I sought in political reporting what <a class="zem_slink" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Galsworthy" rel="wikipedia" target="_blank" title="John Galsworthy">Galsworthy</a> in another context had called 'the significant trifle' -- the bit of dialogue, the overlooked fact, the buried observation which illuminated the realities of the situation." -- I.F. Stone, <em>The Haunted Fifties</em> (1963)<br />
<br />
I start with a hidden problem in the stock market's latest earnings report card. Overall, earnings rose about 2% for the quarter. But if you take out the financials (banks, insurers), earnings actually fell by 3%.<br />
<br />
That's a problem.<br />
<br />
I appeared on Fox TV Friday morning. Before the show, I said I wanted to talk about this earnings stuff. The producer asked, "Do you think that's too technical to explain?"<br />
<br />
"I should hope not" I thought to myself. I hope people understand that earnings (or profits) drive the stock market over the long term.<br />
<br />
Specifically, the market rises and falls based on what the consensus guess is about where earnings are going. The market looks ahead. So you can match up the S&P 500 -- a broad proxy for the market -- with the consensus guess for earnings in the coming 12 months (the so-called "forward estimate").<br />
<br />
Take a look at this chart from FactSet, which shows just that.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><img id="_x0000_i1025" src="http://dailyreckoning.com/dr-content/uploads/2013/08/DR_08-21-13_EPS-580x479.png" width="580" /></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br />
So if earnings fall -- or if people start to think earnings will fall -- the stock market also tends to fall. This is simple stuff. Trying to predict what will happen is, of course, anything but simple. I'd say it's foolish to even try. But people love this kind of thing -- especially TV people.<br />
<br />
I was on Fox last week, on Aug. 7. I expressed the usual caution about the market, which I've been doing in these pages all year. Asked if it was time to sell, I said "Absolutely." I told viewers that my C&C portfolio was down to just nine names. We have historically carried 20-25.<br />
<br />
Anecdotally, I said, that tells you what I think of the market. It was a lucky call, because the market has done nothing but drift lower since. (It got me a return invite. They want to know what I think <em>now</em>.)<br />
<br />
People are starting to worry about earnings. They are also worried about when the Fed will stop pouring free drinks and end the party -- which, in a roundabout way, still comes down to a worry over earnings.<br />
<br />
The earnings for the second quarter seem to foreshadow a decline ahead.<br />
<br />
I've already pointed out the fact that if you exclude the banks, earnings actually fell. In some sectors, the decline was ferocious. The mining sector's profits were off 59%. (Fortunately, we put ourselves in a great position here. We long ago dumped all of our miners and commodity plays. Instead, we bought the financials. Today, we enjoy the profits -- and savings -- of that decision.) The overall growth in earnings was the third-slowest growth rate in the past four years (or 16 quarters).<br />
<br />
Also, the number of positive surprises was the lowest since 2008. And of the number of companies that gave guidance for the third quarter, about 80% have issued negative guidance. Meaning they've taken their forecasts down a notch or two. As a result, the expected <a class="zem_slink" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earnings_growth" rel="wikipedia" target="_blank" title="Earnings growth">earnings growth</a> rate for the third quarter is 4.3%, down from 6.7% at the start of the quarter. That figure is still probably optimistic.<br />
<br />
In summary, for anyone who takes a deeper look into the market's working engine (those earnings), there are plenty of worn-out parts that look like trouble down the road.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Taking a deeper look is what Izzy Stone was all about.<br />
<br />
I.F. Stone (1907-89), or "Izzy" as he was known, wrote and self-published a newsletter called <em>I.F. Stone's Weekly</em> for nearly two decades. It was influential in its time. At its height in the 1960s, Stone had about 70,000 subscribers.<br />
<br />
His focus was political reporting. He was famous for digging through the public record and finding things that people missed. As he described it so eloquently, "I sought in political reporting what Galsworthy in another context had called 'the significant trifle'-- the bit of dialogue, the overlooked fact, the buried observation which illuminated the realities of the situation."<br />
<br />
His work has earned him a place among the best investigative reporters that ever lived. I find him inspirational in my own efforts in trying to put together a newsletter attuned to those same "significant trifles." Stone would've made a heck of a financial newsletter writer.<br />
<br />
Among my favorite nuggets of wise advice from Stone:<br />
<br />
"If you're going to be a newspaperman, you are either going to be honest or consistent. If you are really doing your job as an observer... it's more important to say what you see than worry about inconsistency. If you are worried about that, you stop looking. And if you stop looking, you are not really a reporter anymore. I have no inhibitions about changing my mind."<br />
<br />
I don't think I have to point out how this applies to markets. Certainly, if you come at the market with a strong view, you are apt to overlook the possibly important trifle that doesn't fit your worldview. And that trifle might be the clue that gets you ahead of the crowd.<br />
<br />
More from Stone:<br />
<br />
"The search for meaning is very satisfying, it's very pleasant, but it can be very far from the truth. You have to have the courage to call attention to what doesn't fit. Even though readers are going to say, 'Well, two weeks ago you said this.' So you did. And maybe you were wrong then, or partly wrong, but anyway, you've just seen something that doesn't fit, and it's your job to report it. <strong>Otherwise, you're just the prisoner of your own preconceptions.</strong>" [Bold added.]<br />
<br />
This is not just for newsletter writers. This is for thinking people everywhere.<br />
<br />
We should realize that we are all, to some extent, prisoners of our preconceptions. And we should all work to not let those preconceptions blind us to opportunities (or pitfalls) staring us in the face. Aim to take opportunity (and see trouble) where it lies, and don't try to force the market to live up to your preconceptions.<br />
<br />
Izzy's world had its center in Washington. Our focus is Wall Street. Both places have many affinities. Power and money are their chief currencies. Deception and sleight of hand are common skills. It's easy to get discouraged when you get close. Izzy never did.<br />
<br />
"I felt that if one were able enough and had sufficient vision," he once wrote, "one could distill meaning, truth and even beauty from the swiftly flowing debris of the week's news." Stone's essays did that with wit and good writing.<br />
<br />
If you are interested, I recommend <em>The Best of I.F. Stone</em> as a starter. If you want more, you can move on to Stone's six-volume <em>A Nonconformist History of Our Times</em>, which starts in 1939 and runs until 1970. I've also read two excellent biographies: <em><a class="zem_slink" href="http://www.amazon.com/All-Governments-Lie-Times-Journalist/dp/1416556796%3FSubscriptionId%3D0G81C5DAZ03ZR9WH9X82%26tag%3Dzem-20%26linkCode%3Dxm2%26camp%3D2025%26creative%3D165953%26creativeASIN%3D1416556796" rel="amazon" target="_blank" title="All Governments Lie: The Life and Times of Rebel Journalist I. F. Stone">All Governments Lie</a>!</em> by Myra MacPherson, and <em>American Radical</em>, by D.D. Guttenplan.<br />
<br />
I live in a suburb of Washington, D.C. (If you step outside and listen closely, you can hear the beating heart of the Empire.) Last night, I headed down to the Penn Quarter to meet a couple of friends for dinner. Izzy used to write his <em>Weekly</em> from Washington and lived only a couple of miles from where I was.<br />
<br />
It's unseasonably cool in Washington. We ate out on the patio at chef Jose Andres' Jaleo restaurant. (Best tapas restaurant in town.) My friends were globe-trotting investors, and I was hoping to get a useful lead or two. And I did. Never stop looking, Izzy used to say. More another time...<br />
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<b><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">...</span></b><br />
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<li class="zemanta-article-ul-li"><a href="http://financialsurvivalnetwork.com/2013/08/the-timeless-wisdom-of-izzy-stone/" target="_blank">The Timeless Wisdom of Izzy Stone</a> (financialsurvivalnetwork.com)</li>
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04035672574882281484noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1870867579971469054.post-72304997341892826312013-08-22T07:59:00.001-04:002013-08-22T07:59:33.911-04:00Great Company, Unstable Dividend<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container zemanta-img" style="float: right; margin-right: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
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<tr><td class="tr-caption zemanta-img-attribution" style="text-align: center; width: 300px;">An assortment of United States coins, including quarters, dimes, nickels and pennies. (Photo credit: <a href="http://commons.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Assorted_United_States_coins.jpg" target="_blank">Wikipedia</a>)</td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><b>By Wealthy Retirement</b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><b><br /></b></span>
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">New York, Aug.22, free stocks .- <strong>Blackstone Group L.P.</strong> (NYSE: BX) is one of the world's largest and most successful investors. It runs a diverse group of funds that invest in a wide variety of assets including stocks, real estate, <a class="zem_slink" href="http://www.wikinvest.com/concept/Private_Equity" rel="wikinvest" target="_blank" title="Private Equity">private equity</a>, etc. Blackstone has nearly a quarter of a trillion dollars under management.<br />
<br />
The company makes a lot of money. In the first six months of the year, its profit was $938 million. That's up significantly from $512 million the year before.<br />
<br />
And Blackstone pays a decent dividend. In the first six months of the year, it has paid $0.53 per share. Annualized, that comes out to a healthy 4.9% yield.<br />
<br />
However, the dividend fluctuates strongly from quarter to quarter and year to year.<br />
<br />
In the first quarter, the distribution was $0.30. The second quarter distribution fell to $0.23. So for an investor who needs a reliable income stream, Blackstone doesn't deliver.<br />
<br />
You can see from the chart below, the company's dividend history has been all over the place. It lowered the dividend in 2009 and 2010. Raised it slightly in 2011, cut it in 2012 and now will grow the dividend in 2013.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><a href="http://click.wealthyretirement.com/t/CQ/S4A/Tc0/AARp6A/SpY/ODExMjF8aHR0cDovL3dlYWx0aHlyZXRpcmVtZW50LmNvbS93cC1jb250ZW50L3VwbG9hZHMvMjAxMy8wOC8wODIwX0JsYWNrc3RvbmVHcm91cC5naWY./AQ/k4gZ"><img border="0" id="_x0000_i1025" src="http://wealthyretirement.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/0820_BlackstoneGroup.jpg" width="365" /></a><br />
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<a href="http://click.wealthyretirement.com/t/CQ/S4A/Tc0/AARp6A/SpY/ODExMjJ8aHR0cDovL3dlYWx0aHlyZXRpcmVtZW50LmNvbS93cC1jb250ZW50L3VwbG9hZHMvMjAxMy8wOC8wODIwX0JsYWNrc3RvbmVHcm91cC5naWY./AQ/FWJ8">View larger image</a></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">In the first six months of the year, the company's distributable earnings (a measure of <a class="zem_slink" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cash_flow" rel="wikipedia" target="_blank" title="Cash flow">cash flow</a>) was $729 million. During that time, it paid out $905 million in distributions. Last year at this time it also had paid out more in distributions than it earned.<br />
<br />
The company has a policy in place that the dividend will be at least $0.12 per share, even if it has to "borrow" money from future quarters to pay for it. Fortunately for shareholders, the company hasn't needed to do that yet, but it is possible it will in the future if business takes a bad turn.<br />
<br />
When I discuss the safety of a dividend in these Safety Net columns, my main goal is to try to figure out if the dividend will be cut in the not-too-distant future. Although I always prefer dividend growth, a stable dividend will still merit a high rating.<br />
<br />
Unfortunately for Blackstone shareholders, the dividend is anything but stable.<br />
<br />
That doesn't mean it will get cut to zero. Blackstone is a very well-run company that makes lots of money. But it has no track record whatsoever to speak of when it comes to a stable dividend. Some years it goes up. Others it comes down by a significant amount.<br />
<br />
Blackstone may be a suitable investment for those who are looking for growth (I haven't analyzed the stock for its growth prospects) and who will be happy with whatever income they happen to get.<br />
<br />
Other investors who see that 4.9% yield and are willing to take their chances that the dividend doesn't get reduced too much in the future could wind up happy too. I'm not saying they will, just that it's a possibility.<br />
<br />
But since this column is all about safety, I have to warn investors who need a reliable quarterly dividend check that Blackstone is NOT for you. Its dividend is just way too unpredictable. You never know what you're going to get in any given year.<br />
<br />
<strong>Dividend Safety Rating: F</strong><br />
<br />
If you'd like me to review the dividend safety of one of your stocks, leave the <a class="zem_slink" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ticker_symbol" rel="wikipedia" target="_blank" title="Ticker symbol">ticker symbol</a> in the comments section below. But before you do, check to see if I've written about it already. Enter the ticker symbol or name of the company in the search box in the upper right corner of the website.<br />
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04035672574882281484noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1870867579971469054.post-28849627242729399112013-08-22T07:59:00.000-04:002013-08-22T07:59:06.138-04:0052 Members Of Congress Own This High-Yield Stock -- Should You?<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container zemanta-img" style="float: right; margin-right: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><b>By Street Authority</b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><b><br /></b></span>
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Washington, Aug.22, hot stock picks .- It's the most popular <em>high</em>-<em>yield stock</em> owned by <em>Congress</em>. And they might be on to something. Right now this <em>stock</em> yields 5.3%… and it's <em>one</em> of the most stable dividend-payers in America. During the recession, <a class="zem_slink" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dividend" rel="wikipedia" target="_blank" title="Dividend">dividends</a> stayed steady. And in the past five years investors have enjoyed five annual <span class="definition-url" style="border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; cursor: auto; font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; white-space: normal; word-spacing: normal;">dividend</span> increases.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">At last count, 52 members of Congress -- 19 Democrats and 33 Republicans -- owned <span class="definition-url" style="border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; cursor: auto; font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; white-space: normal; word-spacing: normal;">shares</span> of this company.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">I'll tell you more about the stock in a moment. But first, I think you should understand why it's important to know that Congress owns the stock at all...</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">A few years back, "60 Minutes" finally blew the lid off the entire thing.</span></div>
<div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; color: black; cursor: auto; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; margin-top: 14px; orphans: auto; outline: none; text-align: left; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">To make a long story short, <strong style="border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; cursor: auto; font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; white-space: normal; word-spacing: normal;"><span class="definition-url" style="border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; cursor: auto; font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; white-space: normal; word-spacing: normal;"><a class="zem_slink" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insider_trading" rel="wikipedia" target="_blank" title="Insider trading">insider trading</a></span> was legal for members of Congress</strong> and many of their high-ranking aides for years. They could trade based on the information they encountered in their day-to-day work, even it if it was non-public information.</span></div>
<div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; color: black; cursor: auto; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; margin-top: 14px; orphans: auto; outline: none; text-align: left; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">We had been telling readers about this for months before Congress finally changed the rules. In fact, we even <span class="definition-url" style="border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; cursor: auto; font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; white-space: normal; word-spacing: normal;">put</span> out a special report -- <em style="border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; cursor: auto; font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; white-space: normal; word-spacing: normal;">Congress' Dirty Secret</em> -- that outlined the problem and also showed people how to find out what their Congressman owned with a few clicks of a mouse.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">But there's no illusion here. We could scream about the problem until we're blue in the face. However, when "60 Minutes" -- one of the most-respected <a class="zem_slink" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Investigative_journalism" rel="wikipedia" target="_blank" title="Investigative journalism">investigative journalism</a> programs on television -- dedicates a segment to the <span class="definition-url" style="border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; cursor: auto; font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; white-space: normal; word-spacing: normal;">issue</span>, the nation pays attention.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">And we were happy to see all that attention lead to a change with the passage of the STOCK Act. There's no doubt that this was a problem. According to data from the Center for Responsive Politics, <strong style="border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; cursor: auto; font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; white-space: normal; word-spacing: normal;">247 of the 535 members of Congress are millionaires. That's 48%!</strong> In other words, being a millionaire makes you "average" in Congress.</span></div>
<div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; color: black; cursor: auto; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; margin-top: 14px; orphans: auto; outline: none; text-align: left; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Meanwhile, according to a <em style="border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; cursor: auto; font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; white-space: normal; word-spacing: normal;">Barron's</em> story, members of Congress outperform your typical investor by <strong style="border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; cursor: auto; font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; white-space: normal; word-spacing: normal;">an extra 6.8 percentage points each <span class="definition-url" style="border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; cursor: auto; font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; white-space: normal; word-spacing: normal;">year</span>.</strong></span></div>
<div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; color: black; cursor: auto; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; margin-top: 14px; orphans: auto; outline: none; text-align: left; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Knowing all that, you would think looking at the most popular <span class="definition-url" style="border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; cursor: auto; font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; white-space: normal; word-spacing: normal;">stocks</span> in Congress would shed light on some super secret <span class="definition-url" style="border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; cursor: auto; font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; white-space: normal; word-spacing: normal;">investing</span> strategy that would produce better returns than everyone else. After all, they could make trades based on <span class="definition-url" style="border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; cursor: auto; font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; white-space: normal; word-spacing: normal;">insider information</span>.</span></div>
<div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; color: black; cursor: auto; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; margin-top: 14px; orphans: auto; outline: none; text-align: left; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">But according to Factset, a research firm specializing in <span class="definition-url" style="border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; cursor: auto; font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; white-space: normal; word-spacing: normal;">money</span> in politics, the most popular dividend stock owned by Congress is one of the best known companies in the world. And though the rules have changed to disallow Congress from making <span class="definition-url" style="border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; cursor: auto; font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; white-space: normal; word-spacing: normal;">investments</span> from insider information, the most recent data available is from 2011, <em style="border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; cursor: auto; font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; white-space: normal; word-spacing: normal;">before the STOCK Act passed.</em></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">And let me be clear. We're not suggesting that Congress had inside information on <strong style="border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; cursor: auto; font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; white-space: normal; word-spacing: normal;">AT&T (NYSE: <a class="stock-link" href="http://www.streetauthority.com/stocks/T" style="border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; color: #0049a9; cursor: pointer; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: normal;">T</a>) </strong>-- the high-yielding stock that's owned by more than 50 members of Congress (that makes it the most popular <span class="definition-url" style="border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; cursor: auto; font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; white-space: normal; word-spacing: normal;">income stock</span> owned by our representatives).</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">However, when dozens of millionaires with a history of beating average investors year after year own a particular stock, we think it's smart to pay attention.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Obviously, AT&T won't make you a millionaire overnight, but it is one of the most stable businesses in America. The shares fell with the broader <span class="definition-url" style="border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; cursor: auto; font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; white-space: normal; word-spacing: normal;">market</span> during the recession, but the underlying business kept steadily making money.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Today the company takes in about $127 billion in <span class="definition-url" style="border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; cursor: auto; font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; white-space: normal; word-spacing: normal;">revenue</span> each year and has about $4.5 billion in <span class="definition-url" style="border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; cursor: auto; font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; white-space: normal; word-spacing: normal;">cash</span>sitting in the bank. AT&T returns roughly $10 billion annually to investors in the form of dividends. And those payments have increased every year going all the way back to the 1980s.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">I'm not necessarily recommending you snap up some shares of AT&T, but there is plenty to like about the stock... and importantly, Congress seems to agree.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">While some investors <span class="definition-url" style="border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; cursor: auto; font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; white-space: normal; word-spacing: normal;">will</span> view AT&T as a "boring" old company past its <span class="definition-url" style="border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; cursor: auto; font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; white-space: normal; word-spacing: normal;">prime</span>, I view it as an established company that is worth owning for the long haul, complete with a 225-country-strong market position, billions of cash on hand and huge $20 billion annual cash flows that will help it acquire smaller competitors and keep growing its dividend for years.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">It's traits like these that have rewarded long-term AT&T shareholders -- and Congress -- handsomely over the past decade. It's a major reason why AT&T has more than doubled the S&P 500's performance...</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><img alt="" height="284" src="http://awscdn.streetauthority.com/images/8-21-13-CHARTBIG.gif" style="border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; border: 0px; cursor: auto; font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; margin: 0px; outline: none; text-align: left; white-space: normal; word-spacing: normal;" width="460" /></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">As the millionaire members of Congress may have already figured out, serious investors who ignore these long-term, market-beating traits are making a huge mistake. If you're not allocating some of your portfolio to strong companies like these and letting the returns <span class="definition-url" style="border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; cursor: auto; font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; white-space: normal; word-spacing: normal;">compound</span> year after year, <strong style="border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; cursor: auto; font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; white-space: normal; word-spacing: normal;">you're missing one of the most important forces in the market.</strong> <b>...</b></span><br />
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04035672574882281484noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1870867579971469054.post-18517196974343637722013-08-22T07:58:00.000-04:002013-08-22T07:58:39.769-04:00Fed Tapering: Misunderstood<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container zemanta-img" style="float: right; margin-right: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
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<a href="http://commons.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Government-Vedder-Highsmith-detail-1.jpeg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: clear:right;"><img alt="English: Detail from Government. Mural by Elih..." border="0" class="zemanta-img-inserted" height="190" src="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/c/cd/Government-Vedder-Highsmith-detail-1.jpeg/300px-Government-Vedder-Highsmith-detail-1.jpeg" style="border: none; font-size: 0.8em;" width="300" /></a></div>
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<tr><td class="tr-caption zemanta-img-attribution" style="text-align: center; width: 300px;">English: Detail from Government. Mural by Elihu Vedder. Lobby to Main Reading Room, Library of Congress Thomas Jefferson Building, Washington, D.C. (Photo credit: <a href="http://commons.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Government-Vedder-Highsmith-detail-1.jpeg" target="_blank">Wikipedia</a>)</td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><b>By Logic Fund Management</b></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">New York, Aug.22, hot stocks .- Today, we got a look at what the Fed was discussing at their July 31 FOMC meeting. <br />
<br />
Again, it was another highly anticipated event for <a class="zem_slink" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_finance" rel="wikipedia" target="_blank" title="International finance">global markets</a>.<br />
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Despite the lack of any material <em>new</em> news in recent weeks, the word taper has continued to dominate the headlines.<br />
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But I’m not sure why people are so fearful of the possibility that the Fed could scale down its third round of QE.<br />
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Now, I could do a deep-dive into today's Fed minutes for you, but admittedly, all of this hyper-analysis of the nuances and details of a Fed tapering is a bit ridiculous. What is being lost on everyone is what the Fed attempts to accomplish by its QE program.<br />
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To be sure, exactly how the transmission of QE helps the economy is inexact at best -- short of the downward pressure it's put on mortgage rates, from the Fed's MBS purchases. Even the Fed's Yellen, a proponent of QE and possible next Fed Chairman, has publicly said she can't prove it works directly to produce growth and drive inflation.<br />
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So what does QE do, ultimately? Here's what it does ...<br />
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It gives people the confidence, in a fragile world, that the Fed is still here, doing anything and everything necessary to defend against shocks and promote some stability. With that, people don't sit on their money. They don't hoard gold, and guns, and build a bunker. They live life. They start to invest again, and spend again. <br />
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Companies can plan. They can slowly begin to hire again. And that's what has happened. <br />
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As I've said in the past, this "confidence manipulation" strategy is key for the Fed. They don't have the policy tools (or latitude) to restructure global trade, the major structural issue that continues to overhang the <a class="zem_slink" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_economy" rel="wikipedia" target="_blank" title="World economy">global economy</a>. But what they can control is confidence.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">All of that said, the Fed appears to have realized that QE is just one of many tools that can accomplish that goal of producing confidence and stability. The ECB has shown them that making bold promises can achieve the same objective (i.e. just words). The ECB promised to keep their risky sovereign bond markets in check by threatening to buy as many shaky Spanish and Italian bonds as necessary to push rates back down to tolerable levels – enough said. They haven’t had to buy one single Spanish or Italian bond. Rates on those bonds have gone from ticking time bombs to attractive investments for global bond managers.</span><br />
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The bottom line: Global central banks have come to the conclusion that telling people you are constantly prepared to act, ready do anything necessary – meanwhile, telling them that rates will stay at record lows for a LONG time, can do the trick.<br />
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It makes the Fed wonder, why are we engaging the potential risks associated with QE, when it doesn't seem so necessary anymore?<br />
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From an investor’s perspective, the most important thing to keep in mind is this: The Fed and other global central banks have committed trillions of dollars to keep the world from spiraling into depression. They've continued to act all along the way (together) to promote stability in a fragile time. The last thing the Fed would do is anything to <strong>undo</strong> global economic stability, or anything to threaten the trillions of dollars in global central bank backstops.<br />
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Now, the biggest fear that has been expressed by market participants, surrounding Fed tapering of QE, has been the prospects that tapering will trigger a collapse in stocks. That's an outcome that would defeat the Fed's objectives, and it would be self-induced. Don't count on it. The Fed needs stocks higher and housing higher to fuel consumption.<br />
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For those that have been in the <a class="zem_slink" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stock_market_crash" rel="wikipedia" target="_blank" title="Stock market crash">stock market collapse</a> paranoia camp, consider this: Despite the many months of taper speculation, stocks are just 4% off of all-time record highs. And a September taper, while far from assured, is well priced into the market psyche.<br />
<b>...</b></span><br />
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04035672574882281484noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1870867579971469054.post-9349588451725712372013-08-21T09:08:00.002-04:002013-08-21T09:08:52.870-04:00Don't Get Too Excited About the Market's Gains<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container zemanta-img" style="float: right; margin-right: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
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<a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/76396789@N00/113901609" imageanchor="1" style="margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: clear:right;"><img alt="Dow Jones hoofdkantoor EMEA" border="0" class="zemanta-img-inserted" height="240" src="http://farm1.static.flickr.com/47/113901609_c18c94d87c_m.jpg" style="border: none; font-size: 0.8em;" width="180" /></a></div>
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<tr><td class="tr-caption zemanta-img-attribution" style="text-align: center;">(Photo credit: <a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/76396789@N00/113901609" target="_blank">Tjeerd</a>)</td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">Lower quality stocks led the advance; near-term trend remains down</span></span><br />
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<div class="entry-meta" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 0px; color: #252525; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; margin: 0px 0px 45px; orphans: auto; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><span class="meta-prep meta-prep-author" style="background-color: transparent; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 0px; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">By </span><span style="background-color: transparent; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 0px; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="http://investorplace.com/author/sam-collins/" style="background-color: transparent; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 0px; color: #0079d1; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">Sam Collins</a>, InvestorPlace Chief Technical Analyst</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">New York, Aug.21, free investment ideas .- The S&P 500 rose 0.38% Tuesday, breaking a four-day losing streak. But the market was led by the small-cap stocks with the <a class="zem_slink" href="http://www.russell.com/Indexes/data/fact_sheets/us/Russell_2000_Index.asp" rel="homepage" target="_blank" title="Russell 2000">Russell 2000</a> up 1.51% after falling for five consecutive sessions.</span></div>
<div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 0px; color: #393f40; font-family: Arial; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 22px; margin: 0px 0px 20px; orphans: auto; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Better earnings from the retail sector, including <b style="background-color: transparent; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 0px; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Best Buy</b> (<a href="http://studio-5.financialcontent.com/investplace/quote?Symbol=BBY" style="background-color: transparent; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 0px; color: #0079d1; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">BBY</a>),<b style="background-color: transparent; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 0px; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">TJX Companies</b> (<a href="http://studio-5.financialcontent.com/investplace/quote?Symbol=TJX" style="background-color: transparent; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 0px; color: #0079d1; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">TJX</a>) and <b style="background-color: transparent; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 0px; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Urban Outfitters</b> (<a href="http://studio-5.financialcontent.com/investplace/quote?Symbol=URBN" style="background-color: transparent; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 0px; color: #0079d1; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">URBN</a>), contributed to the gains. Homebuilding stocks bounced as well, with the <b style="background-color: transparent; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 0px; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">iShares <a class="zem_slink" href="http://www.dowjones.com/" rel="homepage" target="_blank" title="Dow Jones & Company">Dow Jones</a> US Home Construction</b> (<a href="http://studio-5.financialcontent.com/investplace/quote?Symbol=ITB" style="background-color: transparent; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 0px; color: #0079d1; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">ITB</a>) up 3.1% and most of the major builders up as much as 4%.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">At Tuesday’s close, the <a class="zem_slink" href="http://www.djaverages.com/?view=industrial&page=overview" rel="homepage" target="_blank" title="Dow Jones Industrial Average">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a> was off 8 points at 15,003, the S&P 500 rose 6 points to 1,652, and the Nasdaq gained 25 points at 3,614. The NYSE traded 634 million shares and the Nasdaq crossed 311 million in a light-volume session. Advancers led decliners on both major exchanges by 2.7-to-1.</span></div>
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<a class="fancybox" href="http://investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/08-20-13-spx1.gif" style="background-color: transparent; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 0px; color: #0079d1; display: inline-block; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 18px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: center; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><img alt="SPX Chart" class="alignnone size-medium wp-image-390443" height="187" src="http://investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/08-20-13-spx1-300x187.gif" style="background-color: transparent; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: none; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="300" /><br />
Click to Enlarge</span></a></div>
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<a href="http://investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/chart-key.gif" style="background-color: transparent; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 0px; color: #0079d1; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><img alt="Chart Key" class="size-medium wp-image-354057 alignnone" height="84" src="http://investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/chart-key-300x84.gif" style="background-color: transparent; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: none; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; margin: 0px 0px 18px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="300" /></span></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">The S&P 500 regained a small part of the four-day decline that began on Aug. 14 with a gap down from its 20-day moving average. But Tuesday’s bounce failed to close above the 50-day moving average, and so this senior index must be considered negative for the intermediate term.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">A close under the intermediate trendline at about 1,650 would confirm the downtrend while a solid advance with higher volume would turn the index positive again.</span></div>
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<a class="fancybox aligncenter" href="http://investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/08-21-13-rut1.gif" style="background-color: transparent; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 0px; clear: both; color: #0079d1; display: block; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal; margin: 0px auto 18px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: center; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><img alt="RUT Chart" class="aligncenter size-medium wp-image-390532" height="188" src="http://investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/08-21-13-rut1-300x188.gif" style="background-color: transparent; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: none; clear: both; display: block; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px auto; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="300" /><br />
Click to Enlarge</span></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">The Russell 2000 small-cap index stayed under its 50-day moving average for just one day. Note the oversold MACD and a slight hooking up from the fast line (red). </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">The current bounce could even challenge the breakaway gap at 1,038-1,045. But the head-and-shoulders breakdown will be difficult for traders to overcome.</span></div>
<div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 0px; color: #393f40; font-family: Arial; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 22px; margin: 0px 0px 20px; orphans: auto; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><b style="background-color: transparent; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 0px; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Conclusion:</b> These charts vividly illustrate the market’s current dilemma. As in July and part of August, the leading stocks are of lower quality, not the stuff of dynamic bull markets. In fact, on Tuesday, the blue-chip Dow 30 closed down while lower quality stocks rallied. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Fed talk could support a continuation of the rally, but the die is cast and the near-term trend is down with the intermediate-term trend hanging by a slim thread. Continue to sell into strength.</span></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">...</span></b></div>
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04035672574882281484noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1870867579971469054.post-73793129195378029992013-08-21T08:56:00.000-04:002013-08-21T08:56:25.804-04:00This Left-For-Dead Stock Could Jump 50%-100% In 12 Months<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container zemanta-img" style="float: right; margin-right: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><div class="zemanta-img">
<a href="http://www.crunchbase.com/company/research-in-motion" imageanchor="1" style="margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: clear:right;"><img alt="Image representing Research In Motion as depic..." border="0" class="zemanta-img-inserted" height="157" src="http://www.crunchbase.com/assets/images/resized/0004/8176/48176v1-max-250x250.png" style="border: none; font-size: 0.8em;" width="250" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><b>By StreetAuthority</b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><b><br /></b></span>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">New York, Aug.21, daily stocks .- What struck me most about my first trip to Europe was the popularity of <a class="zem_slink" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mobile_phone" rel="wikipedia" target="_blank" title="Mobile phone">mobile phones</a>. </span></div>
<div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; color: black; cursor: auto; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; margin-top: 14px; orphans: auto; outline: none; text-align: left; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">It seemed everyone had one and was talking or texting while walking down the street. I look back on this experience as a glimpse into the future.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Just a few short years later, the same phenomena occurred in the United States. Today, landlines are becoming a thing of the past while even the majority of preteens own or use mobile phones. Nowhere has this growth been more dramatic than in the smartphone sector. These devices have become a ubiquitous part of our culture. Many people wouldn't even consider venturing outside without their smartphone.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">The rise and fall of the companies producing these addictive devices is just as fascinating as their rapid rise to become an indispensible part of most people's lives. Once-popular companies such as Palm and <strong style="border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; cursor: auto; font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; white-space: normal; word-spacing: normal;"><a class="zem_slink" href="http://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSE:NOK" rel="googlefinance" target="_blank" title="NYSE: NOK">Nokia</a> (NYSE: <a class="stock-link" href="http://www.streetauthority.com/stocks/NOK" style="border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; color: #0049a9; cursor: pointer; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: normal;">NOK</a>)</strong> were among day traders' favorite <span class="definition-url" style="border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; cursor: auto; font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; white-space: normal; word-spacing: normal;">stocks</span> for quite some time. Those names have since fallen to competitors such as <strong style="border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; cursor: auto; font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; white-space: normal; word-spacing: normal;">Apple (Nasdaq: <a class="stock-link" href="http://www.streetauthority.com/stocks/AAPL" style="border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; color: #0049a9; cursor: pointer; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: normal;">AAPL</a>) </strong>and <strong style="border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; cursor: auto; font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; white-space: normal; word-spacing: normal;">Samsung (OTC: SSNLF)</strong>. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">We all know the benefits of <span class="definition-url" style="border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; cursor: auto; font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; white-space: normal; word-spacing: normal;">investing</span> in the top-tier smartphone makers. However, there is a special situation arising in one left-for-dead manufacturer. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">I'm talking about <strong style="border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; cursor: auto; font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; white-space: normal; word-spacing: normal;"><a class="zem_slink" href="http://www.google.com/finance?q=NASDAQ:RIMM" rel="googlefinance" target="_blank" title="NASDAQ: RIMM">BlackBerry</a> (Nasdaq: <a class="stock-link" href="http://www.streetauthority.com/stocks/BBRY" style="border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; color: #0049a9; cursor: pointer; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: normal;">BBRY</a>) </strong>(previously known as Research in Motion).</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">This Canadian-based company led the smartphone revolution with its line of corporate-user-focused BlackBerry smartphones. But over the past several years, the company has been left in the dust by competitors. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">In fact, this former high-flying company's <span class="definition-url" style="border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; cursor: auto; font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; white-space: normal; word-spacing: normal;">shares</span> were knocked down into the $6 range back in September. My purpose here is not to talk about why or how this happened, but to explore a real opportunity to <span class="definition-url" style="border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; cursor: auto; font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; white-space: normal; word-spacing: normal;">profit</span>.</span></div>
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<td class="auto-style1" style="border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; cursor: auto; font-size: 14px; height: 10px; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: right; white-space: normal; width: 531px; word-spacing: normal;"><span style="border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; color: dimgrey; cursor: auto; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; white-space: normal; word-spacing: normal;"><span style="border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; cursor: auto; font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: 11px; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; white-space: normal; word-spacing: normal;">Flickr/Honou</span></span></td>
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<td style="border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; cursor: auto; font-size: 14px; height: 28px; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; white-space: normal; word-spacing: normal;"></td>
<td class="auto-style1" style="border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; cursor: auto; font-size: 14px; height: 28px; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; white-space: normal; width: 531px; word-spacing: normal;"><span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; color: black; cursor: auto; display: inline !important; float: none; font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: 12px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: bold; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; orphans: auto; outline: none; text-align: left; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;">With a <span class="definition-url" style="border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; cursor: auto; font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; white-space: normal; word-spacing: normal;">market value</span> of more than $5 billion, along with its $3 billion in <span class="definition-url" style="border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; cursor: auto; font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; white-space: normal; word-spacing: normal;">cash</span> and no <span class="definition-url" style="border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; cursor: auto; font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; white-space: normal; word-spacing: normal;">debt</span>, Blackberry has become a <span class="definition-url" style="border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; cursor: auto; font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; white-space: normal; word-spacing: normal;">prime</span> <span class="definition-url" style="border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; cursor: auto; font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; white-space: normal; word-spacing: normal;">takeover target</span>.</span></td>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><strong style="border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; cursor: auto; font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; white-space: normal; word-spacing: normal;">The Bad News</strong><br style="border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; cursor: auto; font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; white-space: normal; word-spacing: normal;" />
In the latest quarter, BlackBerry only shipped 2.7 million BlackBerry 10 devices -- missing <span class="definition-url" style="border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; cursor: auto; font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; white-space: normal; word-spacing: normal;">Wall Street</span>expectations by a disappointing 22%, or 600,000 units. Not to mention, <span class="definition-url" style="border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; cursor: auto; font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; white-space: normal; word-spacing: normal;">gross margin</span> dropped dramatically the first quarter -- from 40% down to 34%. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><strong style="border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; cursor: auto; font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; white-space: normal; word-spacing: normal;">The Good News </strong><br style="border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; cursor: auto; font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; white-space: normal; word-spacing: normal;" />
With a market value of more than $5 billion, along with its $3 billion in cash and no debt, Blackberry has become a prime takeover target. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><span class="definition-url" style="border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; cursor: auto; font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; white-space: normal; word-spacing: normal;">Analysts</span> at Jeffriess have the takeout price for BlackBerry pegged at $15 per share with a target price of $18. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Sparking this <span class="definition-url" style="border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; cursor: auto; font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; white-space: normal; word-spacing: normal;">speculation</span> is the fact that BlackBerry's largest shareholder, FairFax Financial <span class="definition-url" style="border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; cursor: auto; font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; white-space: normal; word-spacing: normal;">CEO</span> Prem Watsa, recently resigned from BlackBerry's <span class="definition-url" style="border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; cursor: auto; font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; white-space: normal; word-spacing: normal;">board of directors</span> due to a conflict of interest. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">This could <span class="definition-url" style="border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; cursor: auto; font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; white-space: normal; word-spacing: normal;">mean</span> Watsa has plans to take the company private. He has been exploring options with<span class="definition-url" style="border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; cursor: auto; font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; white-space: normal; word-spacing: normal;">private equity</span> firms to facilitate the <span class="definition-url" style="border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; cursor: auto; font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; white-space: normal; word-spacing: normal;">buyout</span>. BlackBerry has formed a committee to explore a potential<span class="definition-url" style="border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; cursor: auto; font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; white-space: normal; word-spacing: normal;">sale</span>. This news sent shares surging more than 10%. Shares have rallied since August 1 on the buyout possibilities prior to hitting <span class="definition-url" style="border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; cursor: auto; font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; white-space: normal; word-spacing: normal;">resistance</span> in the $12 range. The share price has since dropped back to $10 prior to bouncing off of this <span class="definition-url" style="border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; cursor: auto; font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; white-space: normal; word-spacing: normal;">support level</span>.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><img alt="" height="376" src="http://awscdn.streetauthority.org/images/BBRY_1_Chart_8-20-13(1).png" style="border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; border: 0px; cursor: auto; font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; margin: 0px; outline: none; text-align: left; white-space: normal; word-spacing: normal;" width="620" /></span></div>
<div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; color: black; cursor: auto; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; margin-top: 14px; orphans: auto; outline: none; text-align: left; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Most interestingly, is Timothy Dattels, who chairs the committee to explore options for the company. Dattels is also a senior partner at TPG <span class="definition-url" style="border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; cursor: auto; font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; white-space: normal; word-spacing: normal;">Capital</span>, which is a $57 billion private <span class="definition-url" style="border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; cursor: auto; font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; white-space: normal; word-spacing: normal;">investment</span> firm. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">In addition, a possible bidding war could break out with the value of BlackBerry's <span class="definition-url" style="border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; cursor: auto; font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; white-space: normal; word-spacing: normal;">patent</span> portfolio and enterprise assets, potentially pushing shares above $20.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><img alt="" height="376" src="http://awscdn.streetauthority.info/images/BBRY_2_Chart_8-20-13(1).png" style="border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; border: 0px; cursor: auto; font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; margin: 0px; outline: none; text-align: left; white-space: normal; word-spacing: normal;" width="620" /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Risks to Consider: <em style="border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; cursor: auto; font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; white-space: normal; word-spacing: normal;">BlackBerry devices have fallen out of favor with many consumers. No matter how the company innovates, it seems to miss the mark. The possible buyout is very speculative and mostly based on circumstantial evidence. While there is the potential for solid <span class="definition-url" style="border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; cursor: auto; font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; white-space: normal; word-spacing: normal;">upside</span>, investors need to exercise caution, as this <span class="definition-url" style="border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; cursor: auto; font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; white-space: normal; word-spacing: normal;">stock</span> remains extremely risky.</em></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; color: firebrick; cursor: auto; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; white-space: normal; word-spacing: normal;"><strong style="border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; cursor: auto; font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; white-space: normal; word-spacing: normal;">Action to Take --> </strong></span>I would be a buyer of BlackBerry on a breakout above $11. If shares manage to break this level, the 200-day simple <span class="definition-url" style="border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; cursor: auto; font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; white-space: normal; word-spacing: normal;">moving average</span> is the next resistance level in the $13 range. If the rumours of a buyout start to turn into actions, shares could reach $15 to $20 within the next 12 months.</span></div>
<div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; color: black; cursor: auto; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; margin-top: 14px; orphans: auto; outline: none; text-align: left; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">.</span></div>
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04035672574882281484noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1870867579971469054.post-72019715933693456382013-08-21T08:45:00.000-04:002013-08-21T08:45:13.575-04:00How to Be Richer, Thinner and Happier… Part 2<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container zemanta-img" style="float: right; margin-right: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
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<a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/14771153@N04/8008925168" imageanchor="1" style="margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: clear:right;"><img alt="Weight Watchers Keys" border="0" class="zemanta-img-inserted" height="159" src="http://farm9.static.flickr.com/8039/8008925168_fe7af2ed32_m.jpg" style="border: none; font-size: 0.8em;" width="240" /></a></div>
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<tr><td class="tr-caption zemanta-img-attribution" style="text-align: center; width: 240px;">Weight Watchers Keys (Photo credit: <a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/14771153@N04/8008925168" target="_blank">slgckgc</a>)</td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><b>By Investment U</b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><b><br /></b></span>
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Chicago, Aug.21, best stock to buy .- For most of my post-20s adult life, I was 6'3" and weighed about 220 pounds. I imagined I was about 10 pounds overweight. I was mistaken. According to a <a class="zem_slink" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Body_mass_index" rel="wikipedia" target="_blank" title="Body mass index">body mass index (BMI)</a> calculation, I should weigh no more than 195 pounds. In other words, I was 25 pounds overweight.<br />
<br />
To put this in perspective, a gallon of milk weighs<br />
8 1/2 pounds. That meant I was essentially carrying around three big milk jugs each day, a considerable strain on my heart.<br />
<br />
Incidentally, here is an easy way to calculate your ideal weight, according to Dr. Roberta Anding, a registered dietician and Director of <a class="zem_slink" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sports_nutrition" rel="wikipedia" target="_blank" title="Sports nutrition">Sports Nutrition</a> at Baylor College of Medicine.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br />
If you are a man, take 105 pounds and add 6 pounds for every inch you are over 5 feet tall. (Depressing, I know.) If you are a woman, take 100 pounds and add 5 pounds for every inch you are over 5 feet tall. Now you have a number to shoot for.<br />
<br />
<strong>Know the Principles</strong><br />
<br />
You might be wondering what the heck this has to do with investing. My answer is <em>everything</em>. As I noted <a href="http://click.investmentu.com/t/CQ/Sxw/TVo/AARp6A/a1w/ODA3NjN8aHR0cDovL3d3dy5pbnZlc3RtZW50dS5jb20vMjAxMy9BdWd1c3QvYmUtcmljaGVyLXRoaW5uZXItaGFwcGllci1pbi1maXZlLXN0ZXBzLmh0bWw./AQ/TGVH" target="_blank">yesterday</a>, in my experience the same principles that create wealth can be used to create a leaner body. Investors and dieters who fail fall prey to the same five problems:</span><br />
<ol>
<li>
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br />
They have a knowledge deficit.</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">
They have unrealistic expectations.</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">
They embrace all-or-nothing thinking.</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">
They fail to control their environment.</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">
They don't stick to proven principles.</span></li>
</ol>
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">When I was trying to lose weight, my first mistake was thinking I already understood everything I needed to know about weight loss, despite the fact that I hadn't lost any. After all, every day you either take in more calories than you burn or you burn more calories than you take in. So I just needed to exercise more, right?<br />
<br />
Didn't work. I was (and am) an avid singles tennis player. Three or four times a week, I would play for two hours or more and leave the court feeling like a wet rag. Yet I managed to eat enough to match (or exceed) the calories I was burning.<br />
<br />
So I figured I just needed to make a few changes to my diet. I switched coke for diet coke, ordered the salad instead of the fries with my cheeseburger, and had frozen yogurt instead of ice cream for dessert. Yet my weight loss was somewhere between glacial and nonexistent.<br />
<br />
<strong>Turnaround</strong><br />
<br />
Then, about a year and a half ago, my wife Karen invited me to join Weight Watchers with her. I was skeptical, but in looking into the company, I learned something interesting.<br />
<br />
Two years ago, <em><a class="zem_slink" href="http://www.usnews.com/usnews/home.htm" rel="homepage" target="_blank" title="U.S. News & World Report">U.S. News & World Report</a></em> published its first-ever Best Diets rankings. A panel of 22 leading, independent science experts ranked 20 different diet programs based on seven key factors: short-term weight loss, long-term weight loss, ease of compliance, nutritional completeness, health risks, and ability to prevent or manage diabetes and heart disease.<br />
<br />
Weight Watchers finished at the top of the heap.<br />
<br />
(Full disclosure: I'm not an expert on diet and nutrition, and I'm not endorsing Weight Watchers over competing weight-loss systems. I'm only relating my personal experience here.)<br />
<br />
What I liked about Weight Watchers is that it offers a complete weight-loss <em>system</em>. I won't go into all the details here, but Weight Watchers doesn't tell you what you can or can't eat.<br />
<br />
Instead, it makes you accountable for everything you put in your mouth by requiring you to record what you eat and drink each day. This puts an immediate end to mindless eating. (And you can eat and drink more if you exercise more.) I had expected this to be boring at best, but I found it challenging instead - an enjoyable contest... with myself.<br />
<br />
Within 90 days, I had reached my ideal weight and canceled my membership. And I've maintained this weight for well over a year.<br />
<br />
The parallels between successful investing and successful weight loss are uncanny. I finally succeeded in losing weight because I corrected my knowledge deficit, aligned my expectations with reality, and stuck closely to a system that's proven to work. Which is exactly how, years earlier, I had turned around my financial fortunes.<br />
<br />
Tomorrow, we'll discuss how you can avoid the five mistakes and start applying proven principles to your own goals - whether you're trying to build a fortune, lose weight... or both.<br />
<br />
Until then, good investing,<br />
<br />
<b>...</b></span><br />
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04035672574882281484noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1870867579971469054.post-71359785341092962812013-08-21T08:36:00.000-04:002013-08-21T08:36:20.788-04:00Avoid the Emerging Markets Storm<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container zemanta-img" style="float: right; margin-right: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
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<a href="http://commons.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:HK_Central_QRC_Luk_Hoi_Tong_Bldg_n_Theatre_Lane_Hang_Seng_Index.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: clear:right;"><img alt="HK Central QRC Luk Hoi Tong Bldg n Theatre Lan..." border="0" class="zemanta-img-inserted" height="225" src="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/a/ae/HK_Central_QRC_Luk_Hoi_Tong_Bldg_n_Theatre_Lane_Hang_Seng_Index.JPG/300px-HK_Central_QRC_Luk_Hoi_Tong_Bldg_n_Theatre_Lane_Hang_Seng_Index.JPG" style="border: none; font-size: 0.8em;" width="300" /></a></div>
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<tr><td class="tr-caption zemanta-img-attribution" style="text-align: center; width: 300px;">HK Central QRC Luk Hoi Tong Bldg n Theatre Lane Hang Seng Index (Photo credit: <a href="http://commons.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:HK_Central_QRC_Luk_Hoi_Tong_Bldg_n_Theatre_Lane_Hang_Seng_Index.JPG" target="_blank">Wikipedia</a>)</td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><b>By Rude Awakening</b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><b><br /></b></span>
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Baltimore, Aug.21, best stock .- The broad market just posted its first four-day losing streak of the year. But you should continue to concentrate on U.S. stocks to help fuel gains in your portfolio.<br />
<br />
Why?<br />
<br />
Because despite recent market weakness stateside, the rest of the world's performance just isn't up to snuff right now—especially emerging markets.<br />
<br />
Take a look:</span><br />
<div align="center">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><img id="_x0000_i1025" src="http://dailyreckoning.com/dr-content/uploads/2013/08/RUD_08-20-13_Stumble.png" width="580" /></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">And the chart illustrates just a couple of examples. MarketWatch notes that today alone even the major Asian markets tumbled alongside the once-revered emerging market leaders. Japan's Nikkei dropped 2.6%, <a class="zem_slink" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Korea" rel="wikipedia" target="_blank" title="South Korea">South Korea's</a> Kospi lost 1.6% and Australia's S&P/ASX 200 gave up 0.7%, and Hong Kong's <a class="zem_slink" href="http://www.hsi.com.hk/" rel="homepage" target="_blank" title="Hang Seng Index">Hang Seng Index</a> shed 2.2%...<br />
<br />
"The eye of the storm is directly above emerging markets now, two years after it hovered over Europe and four years after it hit the U.S.," Stephen Jen, co-founder of hedge fund SLJ Macro Partners LLP in London and former head of foreign-exchange strategy at <a class="zem_slink" href="http://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSE:MS" rel="googlefinance" target="_blank" title="NYSE: MS">Morgan Stanley</a> told Bloomberg. "This could be serious for Asia."<br />
<br />
As a result, investors are favoring U.S. stocks over emerging markets by the most ever right now. "Almost $95 billion was poured into exchange-traded funds of American shares this year, while developing-nation ETFs saw withdrawals of $8.4 billion," Bloomberg notes. That's huge…<br />
<br />
I know this week isn't looking very promising so far (not even here in ole' USA). In fact, it's been downright crappy. Everything—and I mean everything—closed lower yesterday. Bonds, gold, and stocks. All of them fell Monday.<br />
<br />
But it's August. Trading volume is incredibly low right now. While the short-term trend for the broad market is lower, it's not yet flirting with disaster. Conditions can change quickly. We have to react—not anticipate.<br />
<br />
In the meantime, except for a select few opportunities, you should not try to bottom-pick emerging markets. It will only lead to pain and suffering for your portfolio…</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">.</span><br />
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04035672574882281484noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1870867579971469054.post-46451049166713888832013-08-20T08:23:00.000-04:002013-08-20T08:23:02.145-04:00Death Blow Dealt to the Bulls?<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container zemanta-img" style="float: right; margin-right: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
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<a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/55046645@N00/4764289861" imageanchor="1" style="margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: clear:right;"><img alt="Monday, Monday..." border="0" class="zemanta-img-inserted" height="240" src="http://farm5.static.flickr.com/4094/4764289861_bc09088a8f_m.jpg" style="border: none; font-size: 0.8em;" width="240" /></a></div>
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<tr><td class="tr-caption zemanta-img-attribution" style="text-align: center; width: 240px;">Monday, Monday... (Photo credit: <a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/55046645@N00/4764289861" target="_blank">practicalowl</a>)</td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">Monday's price action was the coup de grace for those who expected the market to break to new highs again this summer</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></span>
<br />
<div class="entry-meta" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 0px; color: #252525; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; margin: 0px 0px 45px; orphans: auto; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><span class="meta-prep meta-prep-author" style="background-color: transparent; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 0px; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">By </span><span style="background-color: transparent; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 0px; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="http://investorplace.com/author/sam-collins/" style="background-color: transparent; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 0px; color: #0079d1; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">Sam Collins</a>, InvestorPlace Chief Technical Analyst</span><span class="meta-sep meta-sep-entry-date" style="background-color: transparent; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 0px; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></span></div>
<div class="entry-meta" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 0px; color: #252525; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; margin: 0px 0px 45px; orphans: auto; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">New York, Aug.20, trading stocks .- Much of last week’s angst over falling bond prices and fear of a <a class="zem_slink" href="http://www.federalreserve.gov/" rel="homepage" target="_blank" title="Federal Reserve System">Federal Reserve</a> change from an easy money policy led to a broad market decline on Monday.</span></div>
<div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 0px; color: #393f40; font-family: Arial; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 22px; margin: 0px 0px 20px; orphans: auto; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">There was little in the way of news on which to focus, but a new probe of banks and their <a class="zem_slink" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign_policy" rel="wikipedia" target="_blank" title="Foreign policy">foreign policies</a> led to selling in the <a class="zem_slink" href="http://www.wikinvest.com/industry/Financial_Services" rel="wikinvest" target="_blank" title="Financial Services">financial sector</a>. Other interest rate sensitive sectors like housing, construction and utilities underperformed.</span></div>
<div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 0px; color: #393f40; font-family: Arial; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 22px; margin: 0px 0px 20px; orphans: auto; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">At Monday’s close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was off 71 points at 15,011, the S&P 500 fell 10 points to 1,646, and the Nasdaq lost 14 points at 3,589. The NYSE traded 640 million shares and the Nasdaq crossed 342 million. Decliners outpaced advancers on the Big Board by 4.4-to-1 and on the Nasdaq by 2.3-to-1.</span></div>
<div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 0px; color: #393f40; font-family: Arial; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 22px; margin: 0px 0px 20px; orphans: auto; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;">
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<a href="http://investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/chart-key.gif" style="background-color: transparent; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 0px; color: #0079d1; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><img alt="Chart Key" class="size-medium wp-image-354057 alignnone" height="84" src="http://investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/chart-key-300x84.gif" style="background-color: transparent; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: none; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; margin: 0px 0px 18px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="300" /></span></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">The S&P 500 continued to fall Monday, and following the close, it is 64 points, or 3.7%, from its all-time time high made just 12 sessions ago. Those who were bullish at the top must be very frustrated since Monday’s clear penetration of the index’s 50-day moving average qualifies the August high as a “false breakout.”</span></div>
<div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 0px; color: #393f40; font-family: Arial; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 22px; margin: 0px 0px 20px; orphans: auto; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">And Monday’s drop also confirmed that the near-term trend is down and the intermediate-term trend is likely to be down since the 50-day moving average is generally considered to be an inflection point.</span></div>
<div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 0px; color: #393f40; font-family: Arial; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 22px; margin: 0px 0px 20px; orphans: auto; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><b style="background-color: transparent; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 0px; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Conclusion:</b> Monday’s price action is the <em style="background-color: transparent; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 0px; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: italic; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">coup de grace</em> for those who expected the market to recover and break to new highs again this summer. The 20/20 nature of hindsight reveals that investors had numerous opportunities to be skeptical of the August “breakout.”</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Several times, I’ve mentioned the lack of breadth, an overbought McClellan oscillator, the unlikelihood that small caps would lead to a solid advance, etc.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">The downside targets of the recent breakdown were outlined in <a href="http://investorplace.com/2013/08/daily-stock-market-news-where-will-this-sell-off-stop/" style="background-color: transparent; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 0px; color: #0079d1; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">Friday’s Daily Market Outlook</a>: “S&P 500 1,642, then 1,573 (June closing low); Dow 14,660 (June closing low); and Nasdaq 3,320 (June closing low) after penetrating its 50-day moving average at 3,533. In other words, look for a 3%-7% decline with the high-tech and small- and mid-cap stocks hurt the most. It is time for defensive strategies since a pullback of this extent could be followed by a period of consolidation that may last for several months.”</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Other technicians with high credentials, like Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James, expect a full 10% correction and look for a downside target of 1,560 to 1,530 on the S&P 500.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Today, however, with many of our internal indicators oversold (McClellan oscillator, MACD, etc.), I look for a weak bounce followed by a resumption of an intermediate correction. Thus, traders should sell into rallies.</span></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">...</span></b></div>
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04035672574882281484noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1870867579971469054.post-79566233876536111312013-08-20T08:15:00.000-04:002013-08-20T08:15:08.129-04:00Short the Market If This Happens<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container zemanta-img" style="float: right; margin-right: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><div class="zemanta-img">
<a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/12269257@N03/8240533220" imageanchor="1" style="margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: clear:right;"><img alt="Spy vs. Spy" border="0" class="zemanta-img-inserted" height="157" src="http://farm9.static.flickr.com/8490/8240533220_0813ffc9f6_m.jpg" style="border: none; font-size: 0.8em;" width="240" /></a></div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption zemanta-img-attribution" style="text-align: center; width: 240px;">Spy vs. Spy (Photo credit: <a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/12269257@N03/8240533220" target="_blank">tr.robinson</a>)</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><b>By StreetAuthority</b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><b><br /></b></span>
<br />
<div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; color: black; cursor: auto; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; margin-top: 14px; orphans: auto; outline: none; text-align: left; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">New York, Aug.20, top stocks .- By some measures, <span class="definition-url" style="border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; cursor: auto; font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; white-space: normal; word-spacing: normal;">stocks</span> just suffered their worst week in 2013. Despite that setback, the <a class="zem_slink" href="http://www.standardandpoors.com/indices/sp-500/en/eu/?indexId=spusa-500-usduf--p-us-l--" rel="homepage" target="_blank" title="S&P 500">S&P 500</a> is less than 3.2% from its all-time high. Until prices fall further, the weight of the evidence shows stocks are still in a long-term uptrend.</span></div>
<div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; color: black; cursor: auto; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; margin-top: 14px; orphans: auto; outline: none; text-align: left; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><strong style="border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; cursor: auto; font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; white-space: normal; word-spacing: normal;">SPY Nears <span class="definition-url" style="border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; cursor: auto; font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; white-space: normal; word-spacing: normal;"><a class="definition-url" href="http://www.investinganswers.com/node/5569" style="border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; color: #0049a9; cursor: pointer; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: normal;" target="_blank"><span class="definition-url" style="border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; cursor: pointer; font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: normal;">Support</span></a></span></strong><br style="border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; cursor: auto; font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; white-space: normal; word-spacing: normal;" />
<strong style="border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; cursor: auto; font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; white-space: normal; word-spacing: normal;"><span class="definition-url" style="border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; cursor: auto; font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; white-space: normal; word-spacing: normal;">SPDR</span> S&P 500 (<a class="zem_slink" href="http://maps.google.com/maps?ll=40.7068333333,-74.0110277778&spn=0.01,0.01&q=40.7068333333,-74.0110277778%20(New%20York%20Stock%20Exchange)&t=h" rel="geolocation" target="_blank" title="New York Stock Exchange">NYSE</a>: <a class="stock-link" href="http://www.streetauthority.com/stocks/SPY" style="border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; color: #0049a9; cursor: pointer; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: normal;">SPY</a>)</strong> fell for the second week in a row, losing 2.06% last week. Other major<span class="definition-url" style="border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; cursor: auto; font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; white-space: normal; word-spacing: normal;">market</span> indexes were also down as traders reacted to news that was generally considered to be negative. Among the most important news stories was that a number of companies, including <strong style="border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; cursor: auto; font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; white-space: normal; word-spacing: normal;">Cisco (<a class="zem_slink" href="http://www.nasdaq.com/" rel="homepage" target="_blank" title="NASDAQ">Nasdaq</a>:<a class="stock-link" href="http://www.streetauthority.com/stocks/CSCO" style="border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; color: #0049a9; cursor: pointer; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: normal;">CSCO</a>)</strong> and <strong style="border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; cursor: auto; font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; white-space: normal; word-spacing: normal;">Wal-Mart (NYSE: <a class="stock-link" href="http://www.streetauthority.com/stocks/WMT" style="border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; color: #0049a9; cursor: pointer; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: normal;">WMT</a>)</strong>, lowered their outlook for the rest of the <span class="definition-url" style="border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; cursor: auto; font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; white-space: normal; word-spacing: normal;">year</span>.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Even good news was bad news to traders last week. Retail <span class="definition-url" style="border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; cursor: auto; font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; white-space: normal; word-spacing: normal;">sales</span> exceeded expectations, and the number of initial <span class="definition-url" style="border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; cursor: auto; font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; white-space: normal; word-spacing: normal;">unemployment</span> claims fell to a six-year low.</span></div>
<div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; color: black; cursor: auto; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; margin-top: 14px; orphans: auto; outline: none; text-align: left; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">The problem with good news is that the Federal Reserve has said they <span class="definition-url" style="border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; cursor: auto; font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; white-space: normal; word-spacing: normal;">will</span> taper their buying and eventually stop purchasing $85 billion worth of long-term <span class="definition-url" style="border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; cursor: auto; font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; white-space: normal; word-spacing: normal;">bonds</span> every month when unemployment declines sufficiently. Traders are concerned that the market could fall if <span class="definition-url" style="border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; cursor: auto; font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; white-space: normal; word-spacing: normal;">the Fed</span>stops buying long-term bonds.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Continued good news about the <span class="definition-url" style="border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; cursor: auto; font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; white-space: normal; word-spacing: normal;">economy</span> could be the cause of a <span class="definition-url" style="border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; cursor: auto; font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; white-space: normal; word-spacing: normal;">stock</span> market decline.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">For now, SPY seems to be near a level where it should find support. The chart below shows a small head-and-shoulders pattern. The "S" on the left side is the first shoulder in the pattern. This forms when prices pull back after trending higher. The "H," or head, is the new high reached after the initial pullback. The "S" on the right is the second shoulder, which forms after a <span class="definition-url" style="border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; cursor: auto; font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; white-space: normal; word-spacing: normal;">rally</span> fails to reach a new high. The pattern could be labeled differently, but the general idea is the same for any type of topping pattern.</span></div>
<div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; color: black; cursor: auto; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; margin-top: 14px; orphans: auto; outline: none; text-align: center; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><img alt="" height="277" src="http://www.profitabletrading.com/sites/default/files/08-19-13-spy.png" style="border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; border: 0px; cursor: auto; font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; margin: 0px; outline: none; text-align: left; white-space: normal; word-spacing: normal;" width="600" /></span></div>
<div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; color: black; cursor: auto; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; margin-top: 14px; orphans: auto; outline: none; text-align: left; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Almost all chart patterns use the idea of symmetry to find price targets. The eventual breakout is expected to be equal to the size of the pattern. In this case, the distance between the bottoms of the shoulders and the top of the head is equal to about $3.50. This value is subtracted from the breakout point and a target of $164 is drawn on the chart above.</span></div>
<div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; color: black; cursor: auto; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; margin-top: 14px; orphans: auto; outline: none; text-align: left; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">The next chart shows that a similar target can be found with another technique.</span></div>
<div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; color: black; cursor: auto; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; margin-top: 14px; orphans: auto; outline: none; text-align: center; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><img alt="" height="277" src="http://www.profitabletrading.com/sites/default/files/08-19-13-spy2.png" style="border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; border: 0px; cursor: auto; font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; margin: 0px; outline: none; text-align: left; white-space: normal; word-spacing: normal;" width="600" /></span></div>
<div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; color: black; cursor: auto; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; margin-top: 14px; orphans: auto; outline: none; text-align: left; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">After a price move, technical <span class="definition-url" style="border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; cursor: auto; font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; white-space: normal; word-spacing: normal;">analysts</span> look for a <span class="definition-url" style="border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; cursor: auto; font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; white-space: normal; word-spacing: normal;">retracement</span>. Markets never move straight up or down, and a retracement generally occurs after a significant increase or decrease in prices. At $163.35, SPY would retrace half of the move that pushed prices up from late June to early August.</span></div>
<div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; color: black; cursor: auto; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; margin-top: 14px; orphans: auto; outline: none; text-align: left; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">A break below $163 would show that we exceeded a normal pullback and more <span class="definition-url" style="border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; cursor: auto; font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; white-space: normal; word-spacing: normal;">downside</span> should then be expected.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Good news for the economy will support growth in <span class="definition-url" style="border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; cursor: auto; font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; white-space: normal; word-spacing: normal;">earnings</span>, and that should push stock prices up in the longer <span class="definition-url" style="border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; cursor: auto; font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; white-space: normal; word-spacing: normal;">term</span>.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">I still believe that the S&P 500 will reach 2,000 in the next 6-12 months. Long-term investors should not be concerned about the recent weakness in stock prices. Short-term traders should consider adding inverse <span class="definition-url" style="border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; cursor: auto; font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; white-space: normal; word-spacing: normal;">ETFs</span> like <strong style="border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; cursor: auto; font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; white-space: normal; word-spacing: normal;">ProShares Short S&P 500 (NYSE: <a class="stock-link" href="http://www.streetauthority.com/stocks/SH" style="border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; color: #0049a9; cursor: pointer; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: normal;">SH</a>) </strong>to their portfolio if SPY falls below $163.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><strong style="border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; cursor: auto; font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; white-space: normal; word-spacing: normal;">Gold Market Faces Less Selling Pressure</strong><br style="border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; cursor: auto; font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; white-space: normal; word-spacing: normal;" />
<strong style="border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; cursor: auto; font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; white-space: normal; word-spacing: normal;">SPDR Gold <span class="definition-url" style="border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; cursor: auto; font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; white-space: normal; word-spacing: normal;">Shares</span> (NYSE: <a class="stock-link" href="http://www.streetauthority.com/stocks/GLD" style="border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; color: #0049a9; cursor: pointer; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: normal;">GLD</a>)</strong> gained 4.51% last week. This <span class="definition-url" style="border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; cursor: auto; font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; white-space: normal; word-spacing: normal;">gain</span> came as SEC filings showed that large <span class="definition-url" style="border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; cursor: auto; font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; white-space: normal; word-spacing: normal;">hedge</span> <span class="definition-url" style="border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; cursor: auto; font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; white-space: normal; word-spacing: normal;">funds</span> reduced their positions in GLD during the second quarter.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">John Paulson sold about 11.6 million shares, worth at least $1.3 billion. George Soros also sold his position in GLD, although it was much smaller than Paulson's at about 500,000 shares. These two investors were joined by a number of other investors who sold in the second quarter when the total outflow from GLD was $18.5 billion.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">According to some reports, Paulson has not turned <span class="definition-url" style="border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; cursor: auto; font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; white-space: normal; word-spacing: normal;">bearish</span> on gold. He sold the <span class="definition-url" style="border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; cursor: auto; font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; white-space: normal; word-spacing: normal;">ETF</span> and bought<span class="definition-url" style="border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; cursor: auto; font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; white-space: normal; word-spacing: normal;">derivatives</span> in gold.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">The recent rally in GLD is in part due to the fact that so much selling has been completed. Selling pressure pushes prices down, and without that pressure, the price of gold seems to have stabilized.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">GLD should continue to move higher over time. Large <span class="definition-url" style="border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; cursor: auto; font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; white-space: normal; word-spacing: normal;">gains</span> like we saw last week will probably alternate with large losses in the months ahead as gold tries to form a bottom that can provide support to long-term gains. Last week's move appears to be unsustainably rapid.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><img alt="" height="277" src="http://www.profitabletrading.com/sites/default/files/08-19-13-gld.png" style="border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; border: 0px; cursor: auto; font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; margin: 0px; outline: none; text-align: left; white-space: normal; word-spacing: normal;" width="600" /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">The chart above shows that the 26-week <span class="definition-url" style="border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; cursor: auto; font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; white-space: normal; word-spacing: normal;">rate of change</span> (<span class="definition-url" style="border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; cursor: auto; font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; white-space: normal; word-spacing: normal;">ROC</span>) of GLD is near its upper Bollinger Band. This is an indication that a short-term top is likely near.</span></div>
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04035672574882281484noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1870867579971469054.post-45707539662293883252013-08-20T08:06:00.000-04:002013-08-20T08:06:12.428-04:00How to Defeat the Hindenburg Omen<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container zemanta-img" style="float: right; margin-right: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
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<a href="http://commons.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Hindenburg_burning.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: clear:right;"><img alt="The Zeppelin LZ 129 Hindenburg catching fire o..." border="0" class="zemanta-img-inserted" height="236" src="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/8/84/Hindenburg_burning.jpg/300px-Hindenburg_burning.jpg" style="border: none; font-size: 0.8em;" width="300" /></a></div>
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<tr><td class="tr-caption zemanta-img-attribution" style="text-align: center; width: 300px;">The Zeppelin LZ 129 Hindenburg catching fire on May 6, 1937 at Lakehurst Naval Air Station in New Jersey. (Photo credit: <a href="http://commons.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Hindenburg_burning.jpg" target="_blank">Wikipedia</a>)</td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><b>By Rude Awakening</b></span><br />
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Baltimore, Aug.20, swing trading .- The stock market is a fiery zeppelin crash waiting to happen.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br />
Well, maybe not. But that's what the financial media coverage of a rather complicated <a class="zem_slink" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technical_analysis" rel="wikipedia" target="_blank" title="Technical analysis">technical indicator</a> would like you to believe.<br />
<br />
Everywhere I look, I'm seeing breathless mentions of something called the <a class="zem_slink" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hindenburg_Omen" rel="wikipedia" target="_blank" title="Hindenburg Omen">Hindenburg Omen</a>. Some sources are reporting as many as 11 Hindenburg Omens have materialized just over the past few weeks.<br />
<br />
"A <a class="zem_slink" href="http://news.google.com/" rel="homepage" target="_blank" title="Google News">Google News</a> search for the term "Hindenburg Omen" returned 6,340 results this weekend, and more than a few dramatic photos of the ill-fated Zeppelin airship," writes my trading buddy Jonas Elmerraji. "Yup, fear is the predominant emotion in stock investors right now – why else would click-hungry media outlets push some obscure market indicator named after a gruesome disaster?"<br />
<br />
On top of the perfectly-named Hindenburg Omen, we experienced a 2% drop in the broad market last week. So conditions are ripe for some new worries.<br />
<br />
But aside from its catchy (and terrifying) name, what's the deal with the Hindenburg Omen?<br />
<br />
For starters, if you've bothered to read any of the articles that cite the indicator, you've probably noticed that none of them really explain what the hell the Hindenburg Omen measures. That's because it's incredibly complicated. Fully grasping the Hindenburg Omen requires more than a rudimentary understanding of simple technical analysis techniques.<br />
<br />
I'm not even going to bother wasting my time trying to lay it all out for you. I can't even come up with a simplified explanation beyond the fact that it's bearish and it involves tallying NYSE advances plus declines and new highs vs. new lows. And that doesn't even begin to get into the nuances of what's required to trigger the indicator…<br />
<br />
If the Hindenburg Omen had a mundane name, it never would have caught on. Its track record for calling major tops isn't consistent (Hindenburg Omens made similar headlines in 2010, for example). Most people don't even know how it works. It looks good in a bearish market story. But it's not something anyone should use as a trading signal.<br />
<br />
It's no secret that the short-term trend for stocks is lower. The S&P 500 has dropped five out of the last six trading days. So far, we've seen a retreat of 3% this month. But if you're prepared for a bigger correction, the big, scary headlines won't ruin what has been a solid year for stocks so far.<br />
<br />
Maintain appropriate stop losses and sell when they're triggered. Don't force any new trades while the market is falling. And don't blindly sell out of your positions based solely on fear. Keeping a clear mind during a correction (of any magnitude) will put you eight steps ahead of every other investor on the planet.</span></td>
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04035672574882281484noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1870867579971469054.post-39527235256379812282013-08-20T08:00:00.000-04:002013-08-20T08:00:31.386-04:00Gold Chart of The Week<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><b>By INO</b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Chicago, Aug.20, stocks to watch .- Each Week <a href="http://www.longleaftrading.com/" target="_blank">Lo</a><a href="http://www.ino.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2008/05/images-3.jpg"><img alt="" height="96" src="http://www.ino.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2008/05/images-3.jpg" style="border: none; float: left; height: auto;" title="gold bars" width="123" /></a><a href="http://www.longleaftrading.com/" target="_blank">ngleaftrading.com</a> will be providing us a chart of the week as analyzed by a member of their team. We hope that you enjoy and learn from this new feature.</span><br />
<strong><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Weekly Gold Report (August 19<sup>th</sup> through August 23<sup>rd</sup>)</span></strong><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Market bulls were dealt a blow last week as stock traders began booking profit on long positions in expectation of a FED taper in their bond purchase program. The selling pushed the stock indexes lower throughout the week until the Dow suffered its largest weekly drop in over a year. Similarly, the US <a class="zem_slink" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bond_market" rel="wikipedia" target="_blank" title="Bond market">Bond Markets</a> fell under pressure as traders continued to try to anticipate the FED’s next decision regarding <a class="zem_slink" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantitative_easing" rel="wikipedia" target="_blank" title="Quantitative easing">Quantitative Easing</a> and Interest Rates.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">While the upcoming week is short on economic data from the United States, traders will be looking forward to PMI figures from China and Germany. We will also have an opportunity to review the minutes from the last FOMC Meeting, which should provide decent market movement. Lastly, we will hear from a few FED Members later in the week as they convene for their annual Jackson Hole Symposium.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">I anticipate the FED speak will be nothing short of confusing, which has been par for the course over the last several months. When one member is hawkish today, another member is dovish the following day. It makes sense to perpetuate this style of reporting because if every FED member agreed on the scale and timeline of QE, the major financial markets would experience massive directional moves, and a one sided trade. And until the FED actually feels comfortable enough to raise Interest Rates, we should expect this type of reporting and inconsistent FED speak.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">The <a class="zem_slink" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Precious_metal" rel="wikipedia" target="_blank" title="Precious metal">Precious Metals</a> markets seemed to benefit the most from the profit taking selloff from last week. Gold was up 4.60% on the week and Silver was up significantly more. It was obvious that Hedge Funds added to their net long positions in both Precious Metals and speculators also seemed to be along for the rally. It will be interesting to see if the rally continues into this week’s Precious Metals trade. I will be watching the stock markets as my indicator for Metals. If stocks continue to feel pressure this week, I would have to assume that the profit from stocks will continue to spill over into the Metals. If the stocks begin to see some relief from last weeks drop, then I would assume Gold and Silver will consolidate and possibly retrace some of the rally from the prior week.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><img alt="" height="453" src="http://quotes.ino.com/img/sites/ino/email/5220.jpg" style="border: none; height: auto;" width="570" /></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Gold Futures in the December contract are holding between the 20day and 100day simple moving averages (arrows #1 and #2). Until we hear from the FED members later in the week, I would not be surprised to see Gold Futures continue to consolidate between $1325 and $1375. With the light volume in markets across the board, it is easier for large funds to drive markets with large lot orders, so traders should always be prepared for volatility. But I doubt we will see much until the FED minutes are released later in the week.</span><br />
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