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| Gold Key, weighing one kilogram is used to access a ten digit account number which is known only to the bearer of the Gold Key. (Photo credit: Wikipedia) |
The analysis posited gold’s value upon a return to the gold standard, posing the question: “what if the entire world’s gold were used to back the global supply of fiat currency?”It then explained that there are approximately $12.5 trillion of physical and electronic global currency reserves and in excess of 155,000 metric tons (tonnes) of above-ground gold (which would imply a price of approximately $2,500/ounce if current global bank reserves were to be backed by gold). As you know, we agree fully with the concept of finding one’s value bearings on gold by pricing its quantity vis-à-vis the quantity of reserves (as per our Shadow Gold Price); however, we thought it important to explain the flaws in the method used above, and to augment it in a way we feel better portrays gold’s present value.
First, we do not think $12.5 trillion in global base money is the relevant figure to use as the numerator.
The only reason there would be a conversion from a fiat monetary system to a gold standard would be continuing financial pressures, specifically pressure from the commercial marketplace to deflate the value of systemic credit. This credit-deflation dynamic began in 2008, and has been forcing global central banks to print more base money (bank reserves) with which to service and repay that credit. In a global monetary system in which the future purchasing power of currencies is respected and the system is generally perceived as solvent, there would be no need for a conversion to a fixed exchange rate (a gold standard). So, any discussion of conversion must presume further stress weighing on the marketplace; the ongoing perception of endless money creation that threatens further purchasing power loss. A gold standard would be demanded by global commercial counterparties and savers. Central banks and their treasury ministries would ultimately be forced to cap such fears by “fixing” the exchange value of their currencies to gold.
So the numerator in the calculation should not be the current level of base money, but the amount of unreserved credit in the system (i.e. global bank assets). (Fiat currencies are largely credit currencies, created primarily in the banking system as unreserved loans that create offsetting deposits in kind.) Thus, we think the most appropriate benchmark to use as the numerator in the calculation would be global bank assets – about $100 trillion – not $12.5 trillion in global base money.
Second, for gold to be money in a gold standard overseen by governments, the denominator used must be official gold holdings – not total above-ground gold in the world. Otherwise, the mechanism of a gold standard – the ability to exchange a government-sponsored currency for gold interchangeably at a fixed rate – would not work.
As per the World Gold Council, about 31,000 tonnes of gold is held in official hands (only about 20% of total above-ground reserves). Central banks have no legally or ethically enforceable claim on the balance of the 155,000 tonnes, which is held in private hands. This implies that the denominator in the calculation would have to be much closer to 31,000 tonnes than 155,000 tonnes. ... Continue to read.
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