"No man can become rich without himself enriching others"
Andrew Carnegie



Wednesday, May 22, 2013

Bull Riding Strong Into Bernanke's Testimony

English: Category:JPMorgan Chase
English: Category:JPMorgan Chase (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
It appears that little, other than an unlikely unwinding of QE, will put an end to the advance


JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM) led the financials, up 1.4%, following stockholders’ decision to continue with the combined post of CEO and Chairman, thus retaining Jamie Dimon in both positions. Home Depot (NYSE:HD) reported higher-than-expected earnings and led the retail group with a gain of 2.5%.
At Tuesday’s close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 52 points to 15,388, the S&P 500 rose 3 points to 1,669, and the Nasdaq closed up 6 points at 3,502. The NYSE traded 686 million shares and the Nasdaq crossed 412 million. Advancers outpaced decliners on both major exchanges by about 1.2-to-1.

Trade of the Day Chart Key
In the past four days, the media has been bombarded with comments and interviews from various voting and non-voting Fed regional presidents. The result has been a wild fluctuation of bond prices, and thus, rates on the 10-year and 30-year bond. On Tuesday, the 10-year Treasury rose 6/32 to yield 1.944%, and the 30-year Treasury bond gained 16/32 to yield 3.148%.
On Tuesday, the influential St. Louis Fed President, James Bullard, said that he favored continuing with the present bond-buying plan, but earlier other members said that ending the program as soon as this fall should be considered.
Today, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will speak, and each word will be thoroughly analyzed for its impact on both the bond and stock market. You can be sure that quantitative easing (QE) will be front and center.
This week, four regional presidents have commented on their assessment of the economy and the possible unwinding of their bond purchase programs. Some said that unwinding was necessary, others that it could be increased, and two indicated that the program was just right — a real Goldilocks summary.
Bernanke’s testimony may be important as to the future course of stocks, but for now the bull is still riding strong and it appears that little, other than an unlikely unwinding of the Fed’s QE, will put an end to the advance. ...
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Are These The Ultimate Growth And Value Plays?

By StreetAuthority

Washington, May.22, stock investment .- In fits and starts, the U.S. economy appears to be gaining steam.
Recent economic reports have been giving mixed signals -- the consumer is feeling better while manufacturers retrench a bit -- but on balance, the recent trends hint at GDP growth in excess of 2.5% in the second half of this year and perhaps near 3% by next year. The challenge for investors is to find companies that are poised to grow in tandem with the economy.
I screened every company in the S&P 400, 500 and 600, looking for companies that have recently seen their 2013 earnings per share (EPS) outlooks boosted and are now expected to boost EPS by at least 20% in 2014 and again in 2015. Two industries are heavily represented in this group: energy and housing.
Housing Industry Profits Are Set To Rise
Anticipated strong profit growth may already be reflected in a lot of these stocks. The PHLX Housing Sector Index has risen from 80 in October 2011 to a recent 209. And some question whether the housingmarket is truly poised for better days ahead, expressing concern that an eventual rise in mortgage rates or an unleashed supply of homes coming out of foreclosure will dampen recent gains in housing prices.
You'll also find a brightening profit picture in the oil and gas industry, thanks in part to firming natural-gas prices. Higher prices have boosted the cash-flow prospects of energy producers and strengthened demand for equipment providers alike.
Yet another two dozen companies outside of energy and housing are poised for solid profit gains. In a bid to pair growth with value, I narrowed this group to any stocks trading for less than 15 times projected 2015 profits. In effect, these companies have a PEG (the P/E ratio divided by the earnings growth rate) ratio well below 1.
These companies are generating profit growth through either organic top-line growth or impressive cost controls.
For example, take biotech firm Celgene (Nasdaq: CELG). At the end of 2012, Celgene met withanalysts and explained how its current pipeline of drug candidates should help the company generate nearly $10 a share in EPS by 2016. Analysts went home, crunched the numbers and quickly started gushing about the stock, resulting in a 58% gain in the stock thus far this year.
Defense contractor Huntington Ingalls (NYSE: HII) is taking the opposite tack: Sales are barely budging as plans to build new ships get pushed out, but a focus on expenses has led management to predict that operating margins will rise from 5.3% in 2012 to 9% by 2015.
Running through the stocks on the table above, a few other names stand out as being both timely and a good value.
1. Calgon Carbon (NYSE: CCC)
This company provides equipment used to scrub power plants of key airborne pollutants or disinfect both drinking water and wastewater. A tightening regulatory environment is providing a lift to both segments. Demand for air-scrubbing carbon spiked nicely higher as power plants were retrofitted to cut emissions of mercury, sulfur dioxide and other airborne pollutants.
And the company's UV-based water-filtration systems is now starting to see firming demand as well, especially in the maritime industry. The EPA now requires all ships that navigate U.S. waters to implement ballast-water treatment systems
To be sure, neither segment will ever be a fast grower. But moderate growth, coupled with steady margingains, is helping to deliver fairly robust bottom-line growth. Per-share profits are expected to rise at a solid clip in 2013 and 2014 and then really take off in 2015 as those regulations start to tighten further. In support of the brightening outlook, a pair of company directors recently acquired a collective $250,000 in company stock at an average price of $17.30.
2. Pentair (NYSE: PNR)
This company has a slightly similar focus, making water-quality processing equipment, along with other flow-control gear. Like Calgon Carbon, organic growth is unimpressive, but a recent merger with the flow division of Tyco International (NYSE: TYC) is helping to sharply boost margins. Pentair is applying its lean manufacturing techniques to many of the Tyco factories, which is setting the stage for solid bottom-line growth.
After digesting a recent quarterly earnings report, analysts at Citigroup noted, "Although it is only its second quarter as a merged company, management is already ahead of schedule on cost synergies and raised its 2013 cost synergy target from $90 million to $100 million, adding confidently that it has already identified all of the savings targets." Shares have begun to strengthen but still trade for just 12 times projected 2015 profits.
Risks to Consider: The projected profit gains for these companies are largely predicated on a firming U.S. economy, and as a result, would likely be subject to downward earnings revisions if the economy began to cool.
Action to Take --> As noted with the Celgene example, investors crave growth and predictability. Companies with erratic profit growth will always be penalized, but these steady profit growers looked poised to move higher if the U.S. economy continues to strengthen.
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New Life for the New Trade of the Decade

This is what a working holiday visa for Japan ...
This is what a working holiday visa for Japan looks like. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
By Daily Reckoning


Baltimore, May.22, stock investing .- First, stocks hit new highs on Friday. Gold lost $22 per ounce.

But believe it or not, our new Trade of the Decade is going well.

As you may recall, we began a "Trade of the Decade" back at the start of the 21st century.

"Buy gold. Sell stocks." That was it. No fancy straddles, hedges or derivatives. Not even any stock selection. Just a simple macro trade that you could stick with for the next 10 years.

How did it turn out? Beautifully. Gold was the top performing asset class of that period from 2000-2010.

We probably would have stuck with that trade for another 10 years, but we were getting a little bored with it. So we looked around for the most despised major asset class we could find... and the most loved. We found them both in Japan.

"Buy Japanese stocks. Sell Japanese bonds" was our new Trade of the Decade.

You can see how much thought we put into it. And you can see too that we had no real insight into the Japanese economy or its stock and bond markets.

We just noticed that Japanese equities had been beaten down for the previous 20 years. Japan was the world's best performing major market in the 1980s; Japanese industry was the envy of the world. U.S. business schools taught their students to use Japanese expressions... and leading politicians urged the U.S. government to follow the example of Japan's industrial policy.

But before Americans could learn to say kaizen, the Japanese investment bubble said sayonara. The Land of the Rising Sun has been sinking ever since... until recently.
Mr. Market can be an SOB... but he's not cruel. A whole generation of investors had gone broke betting that the Nikkei 225 would bounce back. We guessed he would let up on them sometime before another 10 years had passed.

As it transpired, a change of government also produced a change of policy. "Abenomics" it is called... after the island's new prime minister, Shinzo Abe. The gist of the policy is large-scale bond buying by the Bank of Japan, which promises even more new money than Bernanke.

As it is in the West, so shall it be in the East. The quack policy that was good for the stock-owning geese of North America turned out to be even better for the stock-owning ganders of the home islands of Nippon. Japan's stock market is the best performer in the world... up 32% so far this year.

Of course, the decade is still young. This bull market could fizzle. But the experts we spoke to in London don't think it will.

Lord Rees-Mogg died last December. We went to visit his son Jacob, member of Parliament and head of Somerset Capital, which specializes in emerging markets.

"I think there's more to this rally in Japan than just the printing press," Jacob observed. "They're also taking this opportunity to do a fair amount of restructuring. This could be an enduring trend."

James Ferguson is a macroeconomist and a contributor to our British magazine, MoneyWeek. He also worked in Japan for many years. We asked his opinion.

"This has got much further to go," he guessed. "Simply because the bear market lasted so long. Now with yields falling... and the yen falling... stocks should go up for quite a while."

Ah, yes, that brings up the other side of our trade. "Sell Japanese bonds." That's doing well too, thanks again to Mr. Abe.

How long will these trends last? How long will our Trade of the Decade stay in the money? Will it still look good in 2020? We don't know.

So we applaud ourselves now... while we still can!
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Surviving a Garbage Rally

Cover of "Higher Learning"
Cover of Higher Learning
By Rude Awakening


New York, May.22, stock advice .- Stocks continue their sharp ascent.

In what feels like the blink of an eye, the broad market is up nearly 17% in 2013…

Look back to earlier this year. The boring stocks led us higher. Your mega-cap, super-safe, dividend-paying names were the stocks to own. These stodgy companies sprinted higher for weeks. Safe became the new speculative.

Now, the rally is broadening.

First, it was short squeezes. Then, the rally focused on the more cyclical names. Energy stocks have found a second wind. Small-caps are moving. Technology names began pushing the market higher. Just yesterday, some of the smaller, more speculative solar stocks moved as much as 70%. I'm talking solar power – the sector everyone loves to hate (at least up until a few weeks ago).

"The most-indebted U.S. companies are rallying more than any time in almost four years compared with the rest of the stock market amid the broadest rally since at least 1995," reports Bloomberg

That's right—even the sickest dogs on The Street are reaping the benefits of this rally.

Here's another jaw-dropper: according to Finviz.com, 1170 stocks on the major exchanges registered new highs yesterday—compared to only 112 clocking in at new lows. It's getting downright impossible to find stocks that aren't moving higher on any given day of the week…

Are these junk stock gains sustainable for the long haul? No.

Does this mean the market has to correct right now? Nope.

Right now, it's important not to get too caught up in the spectacular, one-day gains you're seeing from many of these beaten-down names. If you want to ride the garbage stock wave, keep your stops tight. This party won't last forever…
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This Tiny Mining Sector Is About to Soar

Cameco Corporation --- Uranium - Fuel - Electr...
Cameco Corporation --- Uranium - Fuel - Electricity - Mining ...West Industrial Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
By Investment U

Chicago, May.22, online stock trading .- Something big is about to strike the mining industry. When it does, savvy investors have a grand opportunity on their hands.

It all started back in 1993 when the United States and Russia signed a historic agreement creating what's called the "Megatons to Megawatts" (MTM) program.

The program's goal is turn the deadly highly enriched uranium inside Russian nuclear weapons into the fuel for American power plants.

When the program comes to an end in December, it will have converted 500 metric tons of highly enriched uranium (about 20,000 nuclear warheads' worth) into fuel for America's nuclear reactors.

On March 4, 2012, Russians re-elected Vladimir Putin for a third term. Given Putin's disdain for the West, it's doubtful the MTM program will continue.

It will leave a big hole in the world's supply of enriched uranium. It will also leave Russia in the uranium catbird seat. As the supply from dismantled warheads wanes, worldwide uranium prices could double from current levels.

Ready to Spike

Take a look at the graph below...

The spot price for uranium soared to nearly $140 per pound in 2007. Then, almost as quickly as it soared, the price plummeted to the $40 level in early 2009.

The green metal managed to claw back to $70 per pound in early 2011. But then a nuclear disaster shook the sector... Fukushima. Following an earthquake and a disastrous tsunami, the Japanese plant experienced a deadly meltdown.

Next to Russia's Chernobyl accident in 1986, Fukushima is the only incident to reach Level 7 on the International Nuclear Event scale.

Countries around the world reacted hastily.
  • Japan shut down all 50 of its nuclear reactors.
  • Germany shut down 8 of its 17 reactors and resolved to phase out the rest by 2022.
  • Switzerland decided on a slow phaseout starting in 2019 and extending through 2034.
And prior the Fukushima disaster Austria, Sweden, Italy and Belgium had plans to eliminate their nuclear facilities.

The sudden plunge in demand once again sent uranium prices to the $40 level. But prices won't stay this low for much longer.

No Other Choice

Japan's initial reactor shutdowns and those planned by European countries will have little, if any, effect on long-term uranium demand.

Right now, there are 435 nuclear power plants in operation around the globe. An additional 67 more are under construction. Incredibly, despite the Fukushima fallout, another 317 are proposed and could be on line in as few as 15 years.

A World Nuclear Association report from August 2011 (five months after Japan's meltdown) had this to say about the growth of nuclear power:

"[There are] 60 reactors being built around the world today. Another 150 or more are likely to come online during the next 10 years. Over 200 are further back in the pipeline.

"The global nuclear industry is clearly going forward strongly. Countries with established programs are seeking to replace old reactors as well as expand capacity.

"An additional 25 countries are either considering or have already decided to make nuclear energy part of their power generation capacity. Most (over 80%) of the expansion in this century is likely to be in countries already using nuclear power."

For uranium bulls, it's great news. Demand is about to outstrip supply.

In 2011, the world's reactors used 165 million pounds of uranium. At the same time, global production amounted to just 143 million pounds.

The MTM program was there to fill the balance.

But that's about to change...

When the deal with the Russians ends, 24 million pounds of uranium supply will instantly disappear. And it will happen just as global demand begins to surge.

Annual production will need to increase as much as 136,000 tons by 2035 in order to keep up with demand. Not only will we need more mines, we'll also need more processing facilities to turn raw uranium into a product suitable for nuclear fuel.

Bottom line... somebody's going to get rich.

One of Many

While Kazakhstan has emerged as the world's largest supplier of uranium, Canada is No. 2. The biggest supplier in Canada is Cameco Corporation (NYSE: CCJ). It's one of many companies that will ride the back of the uranium bull.

Cameco mines are responsible for about 14% of global uranium production. It owns mines in Canada, the United States and Kazakhstan - which collectively hold 465 million pounds of proven and probable reserves.

The company's flagship operation is the McArthur River Key Lake mine. Located in Saskatchewan's Athabasca Basin, the mine is the largest high-grade uranium mine in the world.

Its average ore grade is 100 times greater than the world average.

Cameco also owns the world's second largest deposit of high-grade uranium. Its Cigar Lake mine, also in the Athabasca Basin, is still under development. Production is on schedule to start by the end of June. Once the mine is running, it will produce 18 million pounds of uranium per year.

The company expects its total annual production to be 36 million pounds by 2018.

Cameco's share price has seesawed between $16.41 and $23.23 over the past year. The stock is currently trading about $2 off its highs.

The mainstream media and the investing herd will soon get wind of the coming uranium shortage. Shares of Cameco, along with those of other uranium miners, could explode higher on the news.

As the program that kept the uranium bull in the pasture comes to an end, something big is about to stir the mining industry....

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Tuesday, May 21, 2013

No Technical Evidence to Support an Overbought Market

English: source: my own photo.
English: source: my own photo. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
This orderly advance will probably continue to chug along to new daily highs


Profit-taking in some of the most active sectors of the year dominated trading. Health care stocks fell 0.6% and consumer staples lost 1%, but health care is up 22% and consumer staples are up 17% since the beginning of the year. Precious metals and energy stocks rose slightly.
At Monday’s close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was off 19 points at 15,335, the S&P 500 fell 1 point to 1,666, and the Nasdaq lost 3 points at 3,496. The NYSE traded 653 million shares and the Nasdaq crossed 416 million. Advancers were slightly ahead of decliners on both major indices.

Trade of the Day Chart Key
The charts of the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 show daily, steady buying in a narrow zone of advance. The Russell made a new intraday record high at 1,001.5, marking the first time that it has penetrated 1,000. The Nasdaq exhibits the same pattern of a determined advance, and it scored another new 13-year high.
Conclusion: All major indices continue to point to higher ground with most in uncharted territory. Currently, despite feelings by some that the market is overbought, this orderly advance will probably continue to chug along to new daily highs.
I’ve heard some financial reporters use the term “parabolic” to describe the current market situation. Although it is not a technical term, they use it to heighten the fear that the market’s advance is about to end with a dramatic intraday reversal and subsequent crash.
The steady advance of both the Russell 2000 and Nasdaq is the result of steady buying and excellent group rotation, and it is accompanied by relatively low volume. The low volume, at the risk of beating a subject to death, is the result of an absence of buying from the public sector. If the advance was accompanied by spikes in volume and price, I would expect a deep correction. Instead, like a powerful locomotive climbing a steep mountain, this orderly advance will probably continue to chug along to new daily highs..
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The American Story... Abroad

Location of Dakota Territory
Location of Dakota Territory (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
By The Daily Reckoning


Washington, May.21, investment opportunities .- In 1881, Dakota Territory had never sold a bushel of wheat to anybody outside of Dakota. Six years later, it sold 62 million bushels.

What happened?

I recently read Garet Garrett's The American Story, which came out in 1955. It is a well-written history of America -- unusual because of its emphasis on the powerful economics that drove the country to great heights. Garrett tells the Dakota story in this book, which is a useful reminder about how economies grow and prosper.

What happened in Dakota was that farmers invested in machinery. The riding plow, the reaper and the combine harvester made the farms far more productive than they had been. Suddenly, the labors of one man could produce 5,000 bushels of wheat. A single miller could turn that wheat into 1,000 pounds of flour.

But that was not all. New railroads connected the farmer to the mill and the mill with markets and ports in the East. The energies released were enormous. Garrett writes:

"So the labor of four men -- one a farmer in Dakota, one a miller in Minneapolis and two on the railroad -- plus a very low rate for ocean carriage -- could put into Europe enough flour to feed 1,000 people for a year."

Let's look at another example: steel. In 1870, there was nothing anyone would call a steel industry in the U.S. Americans bought their steel from Europe. Yet 30 years later, Americans would produce more steel than Germany, France and England put together.

Again, the investment in machines and rail and roads unleashed a torrent of once-frozen economic potential.

Those forces worked wonders as a free people tinkered, invented and created. "In sheds and attics and little machine shops everywhere," Garrett writes, "with sticks and strings and glue and bits of metal, eccentric minds were making models of things that might work, either to save labor or to save time -- two thoughts with the same meaning."

Steam drills. Sewing machines. Electric lamps. Rotary printing presses. Cranes and elevators. Steam engines. Steel ships. Air brakes. Plumbing. Refrigeration. All of these things arrived in the years that followed... and so did a kind of national prosperity the world had never seen.

This is the work of a free people. Testing things. Trying them out. Succeeding and failing. It is a rough laboratory from which winners and losers emerge through trial and error. It is what builds great wealth, great economies and great countries.

It is the American story of two centuries past.
While there are no virgin places for a new American story to take root, no empty continents where a people might go to try to build something from scratch, there are new versions of the American story unfolding in places likely to produce astounding wealth in similar ways.

In places like Mongolia or Myanmar, for example, you find today's Dakota Territory. Not that Mongolians are as free as those American pioneers, but there is so much frozen potential to unlock by applying technology and know-how and capital to their situations. It's these mind-bending changes -- and the lure of profiting by them -- that attract me to explore the world beyond the developed West.


For example, in 10 years, Mongolia may well be among the richest countries, on a per capita basis, in the world.

The long-term trends here are undeniable and will take years to fully play out. I know it is hard to take the long view. I get panicky emails all the time from my subscribers who fret over this or that stock because it is hasn't gone up after six months or a year. I know most people will not follow me no matter what I say. They will own a stock for a few months or maybe a year, and when it doesn't pan out, they will sell out. On to the next great thing!

But in the real world, great stories unfold slowly. As with the American story, they take their time in the telling, with many digressions along the way. Learn to enjoy the story and think long term. Don't get distracted by the daily and weekly march of news and prices.

Keep your sights on the grander story and stick with the original thesis as long as it remains valid!
...
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An Ultra-Safe 7.75% Yield

Image representing AMD as depicted in CrunchBase
Image via CrunchBase
By Wealthy Retirement

Boca Raton, May.21, hot stocks .- It isn't easy getting up every day to fight the Fed and just about every other central bank in the developed world. But that's exactly what retired and conservative investors face every day.

The Fed has been having a money printing party, trying to force buyers out of fixed income and bonds, and into stocks and real estate. The result has been a market where the 30-year Treasury bond pays less than half of what it should.

Bond yields have gotten so low it's laughable.

But the yield crunch isn't just here at home. Bonds from African nations that in a normal market would pay 10% to 18% are paying 6% to 7%.

They aren't worth the risk.

Japan got on the money-printing, devaluation ride last fall. It has been great for its stock market and will eventually get it out of its 20-year slump, but it isn't doing anything for bond yields.

The EU lowered its benchmark rate to 0.5%. They too are trying everything to get some inflation and growth going.

Here at home the Fed's QE - which is a fancy word for printing money - has no end in sight.

Some experts think it could go on for as many as two to six more years. I know I don't have to tell you what this has done to yields on savings, money markets and bonds of all types.

Washington will run out of paper before it is forced to stop the presses.

Countries across the developed world are in a race to devalue their currencies, get some inflation going, and try to get growth numbers above the barely measurable range. Until they do, don't expect any easy pickings in income investments.

But that doesn't mean there aren't any good options left...

Hidden Gems in a Rough Market

You can still make a lot of money in certain types of bonds. But there's a catch.

If you want to outpace inflation, you must look for out-of-favor bonds of all types. Unfortunately, most people are lousy bargain shoppers when it comes to stocks and bonds.

But, if you can train yourself to shop for bargains, there are:

  • Corporate bonds from companies that have had a bad run for temporary reasons.
  • Quality municipal bonds from cities or states that have been thrown out with the bath water.
  • Even foreign bonds in countries with bad debt reputations that have improving credit quality.
If you know where to look, you can earn as much as 7% to 10% in great bonds with very short maturities. (For more on why it's imperative that you stick with maturities of seven years or less, watch my latest Two Minute Retirement Solution.)

Earn Over 7% for the Next Seven Years

Consider a bond from one of the old stalwarts of the tech world, Advanced Micro Devices (NYSE: AMD). Here's a perfect example of a company that was in a real funk. It was considered a dinosaur of the business.

AMD's old business model tied it to PCs, which we all know are going the way of mimeograph machines and flip phones. The market had all but written off AMD and many other big-name, PC-related businesses, such as Cisco (Nasdaq: CSCO), IBM (NYSE: IBM) and HP (NYSE: HPQ).

An AMD bond sat in the centralized bond inventories for months at a big discount, and no one would touch it. The yield was above 10% a year, but it was treated like a leper.

Here's what the numbers for the bond looked like as little as three months ago.

The AMD bond (CUSIP 007903au1) with a coupon of 7.75% that matured in August 2020 was priced at about $920. Its minimum expected annual return was about 10.5% a year.

It was a 10.5% bond... and they couldn't give it away.

But then the news shifted in favor of AMD. Suddenly AMD is the favorite of the market and the bond has run up in price to around par or $1,000.

The good news is you can still buy it. It pays a little less than it did before it was reborn by the good news. But it's still a very short maturity - around seven years - which will hold up well when rates turn around and the bond market sells off. It will pay almost four times what the 10-year Treasury is paying.

And AMD's future looks very bright...

With the price around $1,000, we would receive the coupon rate each year until maturity. That's two payments a year of $38.75, or an annual return of 7.75%.

It would have been nice to get the 10.5% yield when it was priced at $920, but 7.75% in this market is nothing to sneeze at. And I expect the price of this bond to continue to tick higher as AMD's numbers improve.

Beat the Bankers

You can beat the central banks at their game, but you will have to become a bargain shopper to do it.

The choice is yours...

Become a bargain hunter or learn to live on a 3% yield on your money. ...

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