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| November 4: Barack Obama elected President (Photo credit: Wikipedia) |
President Barack Obama cheered on backers in Wisconsin, Ohio and Iowa, evidence that his campaign aimed to build a firewall in the Midwest to try to block his Republican rival.
Getty Images Barack Obama appeared at a rally with Bruce Springsteen in Madison, Wis. Agence France-Presse/Getty Images Mitt Romney greeted supporters in Lynchburg, Va. As Election 2012 draws near, never have so many millions of dollars been spent to move so few votes. So what factors determine who wins in such a race? Jerry Seib joins the News Hub to discuss. Photo: AP. During a campaign stop in Newington, N.H. Saturday, Mitt Romney responds to President Obama's comment that 'voting is the best revenge.' Photo: AP. Obama and Romney enter the final sprint before Election Day essentially deadlocked nationally in what looks set to be one of the closest presidential elections in U.S. history. Neil King has details on Lunch Break. Photo: Getty Images.
Mitt Romney swooped through four battleground states—Virginia, Florida, Ohio and New Hampshire—where the Republican needs to do well to secure a win. His campaign organized two additional stops for Election Day, in Cleveland and Pittsburgh. Mr. Romney is hedging his bets with a last-minute push in Pennsylvania.
National polls are essentially tied while polls in some battleground states showed Mr. Obama with narrow leads. Both campaigns said their internal data show their candidate would win.
Voters are set to determine whether $6 billion in advertising and other campaign spending would bring a new era to Washington—with a Republican White House and administration—or extend the status quo of a Democratic White House and split Congress.
The result will answer some questions that have lingered since Mr. Obama's historic 2008 victory. The president was sent to the White House by a coalition comprising segments of the electorate—African-Americans, Hispanics and young voters—as well as women. The president's aides spent much of the past four years working to keep that group together, one that if it remains viable could be a lasting strength for Democrats.
With the margin of victory for the winner expected to be narrow, a likely outcome is a political system as split as the country. It isn't clear either party would be positioned to emerge Wednesday with a clear mandate for tackling some the nation's biggest problems—including the looming tax increases and spending cuts known as the fiscal cliff.
The tightness of the race sparked speculation about the possibility of unusual outcomes, such as an Electoral College tie or the winner failing to capture a majority of the popular vote.
While an Electoral College tie is considered unlikely there are scenarios that could lead to that result, such as if Mr. Obama took New Hampshire, Ohio and Wisconsin, but fell short in the other swing states. A clean 269-269 tie would be thrown to the House of Representatives, which is controlled by Republicans.
Ruy Teixeira, author of "The Emerging Democratic Majority," said an Obama win would be a clear sign of "a return of the Obama coalition, albeit at somewhat reduced levels."
A Romney win, meantime, would signal that trend has been reversed by parallel Republican wins in two successive national contests, including the 2010 midterm elections, suggesting the country would have re-established an uneasy equilibrium.
"The lesson of this election is people want stuff to get done and they just don't want to have gridlock, because gridlock has actually had an impact on the economy," said Republican strategist John Feehery, ticking off revamps of the tax code and entitlements as possible areas of achievement under a Romney government.
In a sign of the legal battles that might accompany a tight vote, Democrats on Sunday sued three South Florida counties to extend early voting. The move was an attempt to circumvent the state's decision not to extend early voting past Saturday as requested by some counties. On Monday, the three counties allowed voters to cast in-person absentee ballots, joining four other counties that permitted it.
New York and New Jersey—still recovering from the destruction of the superstorm Sandy and its power outages—are altering their election procedures. New Jersey is allowing displaced voters to cast ballots by email and fax, while New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo said he would sign an executive order allowing residents to vote at polling sites outside their districts.
Mr. Romney has traveled perhaps the furthest of either candidate during the course of the campaign. His days of addressing the Republican base are mostly over, with the word conservative, once plastered across his campaign buses, removed from Mr. Romney's stump speech.
Increasingly, Mr. Romney is speaking to the belief that even if voters remain sharply divided, they are united in their frustration with partisan gridlock in Washington. "I won't waste any time complaining about my predecessor," Mr. Romney told a Florida crowd Monday. "When I'm elected I'm going to work with Republicans and Democrats in Congress."
If 2008 was an election about hope, 2012 seems to be an election about practicalities. Voters who planned to cast a ballot for Mr. Romney tend to point to his business background or rattle off concerns about the national debt.
Eric Thayer/Reuters Kids at an event for vice-presidential candidate Ryan in Reno, Nev.
Mr. Romney still isn't a natural campaigner. His tie firmly secured, he doesn't waste time in public reflecting on what this moment means for him personally. His style has nonetheless evolved along with his stump speech.
As Mr. Romney made his way to his campaign plane after a rally in Iowa this weekend, he was met by 60 or 70 supporters who had stuck around for one last glimpse. A few months ago, he may have just offered the crowd a wave and a thank you before jogging up the airplane stairs. Saturday afternoon, he shook hands with every one of them.
Mr. Obama, meantime, finished out his 18-month re-election campaign much as he waged it—with tough words for his opponent and a focus on the middle class. He declined to follow his rival into Pennsylvania, but sent his top surrogate, former President Bill Clinton, there for four events Monday.
Mr. Obama offered a vigorous defense of his record. "Today, our business has created nearly 5½ million new jobs. The American auto industry has come roaring back. Home values are on the rise," he said Monday in Columbus, Ohio. "Al Qaeda's on the path to defeat. Osama bin Laden is dead."
Gary Cameron/Reuters A girl at a rally for Vice President Biden in Sterling, Va.
But the Obama campaign also has relied on a dose of 2008 nostalgia. A video that plays at its rallies shows clips from that race. In recent days, the campaign has blasted his 2008 anthem, "Signed, Sealed, Delivered, I'm Yours" as the president concludes his speeches.
Mr. Obama's policy goals this time around are smaller, too, such as slowing the growth of college tuition rather than, say, attacking climate change.
"The energy does feel a little different," said Masharika Pratt, 32, of Cincinnati, who attended Mr. Obama's Sunday rally. "Four years ago was more hopeful."
Mr. Obama began Monday with a rally in Madison, Wis., where Bruce Springsteen warmed up the crowd with humorous stories about phone calls from the president. "Sometimes late at night, around 2 or 3 a.m., my phone rings," he said. Then, imitating Mr. Obama's singing voice, he crooned, "Let's stay together…"
Heavy early voting underscored the intense interest in the contest. A 90-minute-long line snaked out the door at an early-voting center in Columbus, Ohio, where officials say the number of people casting ballots in person ahead of Election Day is nearly 50% higher than 2008.
Among the thousands in line was Robyn Daughtry, a 23-year-old waitress, who said she came to cast her ballot for Mr. Obama. "Obama stands for women's rights," Ms. Daughtry said. "I feel like if I don't vote for him I'm voting against myself."
Andrei Manilchuk, 51, a gastrointestinal surgeon who immigrated from Russia in 1996, said he voted for Mr. Obama in 2008 because he liked the idea of change. This year he was voting for Mr. Romney. "Obama disappointed me," he said. "People need to take responsibility for themselves. The whole idea of redistributing wealth, I don't like it."
Carol E. Lee, Neil King Jr. and Douglas Belkin contributed to this article.
Write to Laura Meckler at laura.meckler@wsj.com and Sara Murray at sara.murray@wsj.com
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