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| November 4: Barack Obama elected President (Photo credit: Wikipedia) |
The Romney camp, combing through surveys taken in the waning days of the campaign, pointed to strength among independent voters, anxiety over the economy and greater enthusiasm among conservatives as signs that the Republican would win, potentially with victories in states such as Pennsylvania and Minnesota that a GOP presidential candidate hasn't carried for decades.
Obama aides exuded similar confidence, citing polls showing the president remains resilient in potentially decisive states such as Ohio and Virginia. The campaign's elaborate ground operation, they said, would mobilize Mr. Obama's core set of minority, young and female voters to guarantee an Obama victory.
The dueling assertions of success came as a new national Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll of likely voters found the two men caught in a dead heat. Mr. Obama led his rival by a whisker, 48% to 47%—a difference of seven voters among a pool of 1,475 surveyed. The poll has a margin of error is plus or minus 2.55 percentage points.
Polls in many battleground states, from Virginia and Ohio to New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and even Michigan, also portrayed a race that is tightening down the home stretch. A new Wall Street Journal/NBC News/Marist Poll survey of Virginia, completed Friday, found the two candidates locked in exactly the same positions as in the Journal's national poll—with Mr. Obama drawing 48% to Mr. Romney's 47% among likely voters.
In the Virginia survey, Mr. Obama had five more voters than did Mr. Romney, out of 1,165 surveyed. Virginia mirrored the national tally in 2008 and looks likely to do so again Tuesday. With the race so tight nationally, both candidates are scrambling for a win in states that will determine who claims the 270 Electoral College votes needed to take the White House. One state remains pre-eminent: Ohio, which carries 18 electoral votes.
Mr. Romney kicked off Sunday in Des Moines, Iowa, where he told a crowd: "We're only two days away from a very different path, from a fresh start. Two days away from a new beginning." The former Massachusetts governor then hopped to Ohio before closing the day in Pennsylvania and Virginia. He plans to end his campaign with a last sprint through Florida, Ohio, Virginia and New Hampshire.
Meantime, Mr. Obama, campaigning in Concord, N.H., was introduced by former President Bill Clinton. "Folks, the hour is late and the time is short," Mr. Clinton told the crowd. Added Mr. Obama: "I'm here today because I'm not ready to give up on the fight." Mr. Obama then headed to Florida, Ohio and Colorado. He will close out his campaign Monday in Ohio, Wisconsin and Iowa. The Journal's national poll illustrates how both candidates have overcome challenges and obstacles to put themselves in a potentially winning position, but with weaknesses that also could lead to either man's defeat.
Mr. Romney has made strides in improving his image among voters and has reversed Mr. Obama's strength in 2008 among independents. The Republican now leads among independents, 47% to 40%, although that is narrower than in some prior polls. Mr. Romney also has made large gains compared to the 2008 Republican presidential nominee, Sen. John McCain, among men, white voters, seniors and college graduates. Mr. Obama won half the college-graduate vote in 2008, while Mr. Romney now leads among that segment, 52% to 42%.
On another front, a group of more than 500 former admirals and generals put their names to an endorsement of Mr. Romney, which will appear as an ad in a number of newspapers Monday. Mr. Obama, for his part, managed to maintain a durable job approval rating in the WSJ/NBC News poll, at 48%, even while a majority of likely voters see the country as on the wrong track. He also maintained a huge edge among African-American and Hispanic voters, and among women, though his eight-percentage point advantage among women is narrower than in 2008.
Mr. Obama also seemed well-positioned among the dwindling number of undecided voters, who said the last few weeks had made them look more favorably on the president than on Mr. Romney. The poll was conducted from Thursday to Saturday, after Sandy slammed the Northeast. A majority of voters in the poll approved of Mr. Obama's handling of the storm's aftermath. Republican voters, though, showed higher interest in the election than did Democrats, while interest among voters under age 30, an important part of the president's coalition, was far lower than in 2008.
In many ways, the race nearly mirrors the 2004 showdown between President George W. Bush and Sen. John Kerry. The country's mood, the president's job-approval rating, the share of voters each candidate claims in the Journal survey—all are near-replicas of the 2004 race. The final Journal poll in late October 2004 also had the incumbent ahead, 48% to 47%. Mr. Bush went on to win, thanks to a razor-thin victory in Ohio. "I could make a compelling case for either of these candidates winning the national vote," said Bill McInturff, a Republican pollster who conducts the Journal poll alongside Democratic pollster Peter Hart. Polling, Mr. McInturff said, isn't good at "trying to predict who wins within a single point."
Mr. Hart, nodding to the candidates' jaunts to swing states, noted that the election will pivot on which man gets his backers out to vote. "This election will be determined by turnout, turnout, turnout," Mr. Hart said. With polls continuing to show Mr. Romney behind in Ohio, his campaign and the GOP are making a last-minute push to try to seize Pennsylvania and its 20 electoral votes, a win that would negate a potential loss in Ohio.
Mr. Romney and his allies are blitzing Pennsylvania with $11 million in broadcast ads during the last week of the campaign, compared to $3.7 million by Mr. Obama, who isn't supported by outside groups there. Both sides are making a push, though less aggressive, in some other states thought to be leaning for Mr. Obama. Republican forces will have spent about $4.7 million in Minnesota during the race's last week, compared to about $1 million by the president's campaign, according to data from a GOP operative.
The election's outcome looks set to pivot on the share of the vote cast by white, Latino and African-American voters. The tightness of the race is stirring anxiety among supporters of both candidates. At the Obama rally in New Hampshire, Richard Gray, a physician from York, Maine, said he worried that the election could tilt at the last minute to Mr. Romney. Tom Hapner, 46, an engineer and Romney supporter from Middletown, Ohio, said he is "beside himself'' at the possibility that Obama could win another term, citing a concern that the president is "going to continue to crash the American dollar."
Danny Yadron and Janet Hook contributed to this article. ...
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