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Friday, July 20, 2012

"American Pie in the Sky" by Nouriel Roubini

English: Nouriel Roubini, Turkish economist, p...
English: Nouriel Roubini, Turkish economist, professor of economics at the Stern School of Business, New York University. From the Confederation of Norwegian Enterprise conference, 2009. ‪Norsk (bokmål)‬: Nouriel Roubini, tyrkisk økonom, professor ved Stern School of Business ved New York University. Fra NHOs Årskonferanse 2009. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
While the risk of a disorderly crisis in the eurozone is well recognized, a more sanguine view of the United States has prevailed. For the last three years, the consensus has been that the US economy was on the verge of a robust and self-sustaining recovery that would restore above-potential growth. That turned out to be wrong, as a painful process of balance-sheet deleveraging – reflecting excessive private-sector debt, and then its carryover to the public sector – implies that the recovery will remain, at best, below-trend for many years to come. Even this year, the consensus got it wrong, expecting a recovery to above-trend  annual GDP growth – faster than 3%. But the first-half growth rate looks set to come in closer to 1.5% at best, even below 2011’s dismal 1.7%. And now, after getting the first half of 2012 wrong, many are repeating the fairy tale that a combination of lower oil prices, rising auto sales, recovering house prices, and a resurgence of US manufacturing will boost growth in the second half of the year and fuel above-potential growth by 2013. The reality is the opposite: for several reasons, growth will slow further in the second half of 2012 and be even lower in 2013 – close to stall speed. First, growth in the second quarter has decelerated from a mediocre 1.8% in January-March, as job creation – averaging 70,000 a month – fell sharply.... Continue to read.
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