The
Gold-Euro-Dollar conundrum Part II
The rising Dollar Index is testing resistance at 81.50. Respect of resistance would threaten a head-and-shoulders reversal — with a target of 74* — following a breakout below primary support at 78.50. Falling 63-day Twiggs Momentum, below zero, already suggests a primary down-trend. But recovery above 81.50/82.00 would negate this, indicating another primary advance.
* Target calculation: 79 - ( 84 - 79 ) = 74
Spot gold (daily chart) is testing short-term support at $1700 per ounce.
Respect of support would reinforce the earlier trendline break, suggesting
another test of $1800. But a stronger dollar and failure of support at $1675
would indicate a more severe correction.
* Target calculation: 1800 + ( 1800 - 1700 ) = 1900
The DJ-UBS Commodity Index (weekly chart) continues to test support at 140.
A 63-day Twiggs Momentum trough above zero would indicate a primary up-trend.
Recovery above 152 would confirm. A stronger dollar and breach of 140, however,
would test primary support at 126.Nymex WTI Light Crude and ICE Brent Crude are both headed for a test of primary support: WTI at $76/$78 per barrel and Brent Crude at $90. The 63-day Twiggs Momentum peak below zero warns of a primary down-trend.
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