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Tuesday, January 15, 2013

Small Caps Look Like Traders’ Strongest Bet

Russell 2000 broke to new highs and, therefore, has no resistance standing in its way

By Sam Collins, InvestorPlace Chief Technical Analyst

New York, Jan.15, swing trading .- Despite the impact of a sell-off in technology giant Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL), other technology stocks had significant gains.Hewlett-Packard (NYSE:HPQ) rose 4.9% on rumors of going private, Cisco Systems (NASDAQ:CSCO) gained 2.4%, andDell (NASDAQ:DELL) jumped 13% on rumors of a buyout.
At Monday’s close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 19 points to 13,507, the S&P 500 fell 1 point to 1,471, and the Nasdaq lost 8 points at 3,118. The NYSE traded 590 million shares and the Nasdaq crossed 404 million. On the Big Board, advancers edged out decliners by a small margin, and on the Nasdaq, decliners were ahead by 1.2-to-1.
Trade of the Day Chart Key
The Russell 2000 small-cap index broke from a “deep V” formation on Jan. 2, and like the more widely followed indices, is consolidating following the big gain. But unlike the Dow (see Monday’sDaily Market Outlook), the Russell 2000 has broken to new highs and, although overbought, has no resistance above the current level since it is at an all-time high. Therefore, pullbacks should be shallow followed by spikes to higher levels.
The NYSE Composite made a sharp break through the neckline of an inverse head-and-shoulders formation on a powerful breakaway gap. However, unlike the Russell 2000, it is not close to a new all-time high, so it should find some resistance as it plods higher. 
These charts are the most bullish patterns that we’ve seen in years, and so we anticipate that individual stocks will do well. However, since the major breakout of Jan. 2, the advance has slowed and volume has declined. Monday’s volume was the lowest of the month. 
Our internal indicators are overbought, and sentiment numbers have taken on a bullish bias (AAII bulls rose 7.7 points last week), but since they are contra-indicators, they warn of a mild pullback.
Conclusion: Volume has declined sharply as investors await the important Q4 earnings results. So far, they have been favorable, especially in the technology and small-cap sectors. Traders should therefore focus on small caps for trades, and investors should review their buy lists for possible upcoming bargains if the large caps become subject to profit-taking. ...

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