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Sunday, June 17, 2012

El-Erian: 3 Key Questions for the Greek Election

Christine Lagarde, Managing Director of the In...
Christine Lagarde, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund. (Photo credit: European Council)
Greece desperately needs a political anchor. Will it get one? This can either take the form of a single party gaining a durable majority in parliament or the formation of a coalition government. If Sunday's election fails to yield such an outcome, the president would have no choice but to call for a third election. The country's political turmoil would intensify, making it very difficult (if not impossible) for Greece to secure financing from its official external creditors (known as the "Troika," and consisting of the European Central Bank, European Union and International Monetary Fund).
Given the higher risk of running out of money, Greece would face even greater economic and financial chaos. Citizens would stop paying bills, tax receipts would dwindle even more, and capital would flee the country in troves.
The Greek government would have no choice but to redefine the institutional context for the country's medium-term recovery. And it would most likely involve a messy exit from the eurozone. ... Continue to read.
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