Source: University of Michigan, Thompson Reuters.
Consumer sentiment is a coincident indicator — it tells you what just happened, not what’s about to happen. It’s not very useful for forecasting.
But it provides insight into the American consumers’ brain. Sentiment is primarily influenced by:
- Job availability
- Stock prices
- Gas prices
- Political stability
Probably in that order.
Of those, unemployment recently hit its lowest level in almost four years. Stock prices are at multi-year highs. Gas prices — with the exception of California — aren’t low by any means, but America is adjusting to a new-normal of prices in the high-$3 range. Just look at the increase in average miles per gallon. And Congress is now on recess, though the looming fiscal cliff is bound to freak people out before long. ... Continue to read.
No comments:
Post a Comment